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Dulfite on 10 September 2021
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ShadowLink93 said:

Dulfite said:

Especially since Nintendo basically left the game as is from launch aside from the occassional small feature addition or holiday event. With as much as that game sold, it could have sold far more with a constant flow of dlc (which would further push hardware). I don't know why they don't release major updates to that game every 2-3 months. If ever there was a game that should be treated like a live service game from Nintendo's lineup, it's Animal Crossing. Fans would be delighted to have new things added (both free and ones that cost money). They could even have an in-game economy where you can exchange bells for dollars and vice-versa in order to buy the dlc (plenty of mmos allow in-game currency <---> real world money exchange, like Guild Wars 2 with gold and gems). But instead the game is mostly what it was when it launched, which was a good game. But if I had additional islands to visit for various purposes (sporting events, festivals, a scientific research island, the list goes on and on), I would absolutely pay real $ to experience that. It's absurd they don't have a vibrant campaign going on in that game with as many copies as it sold.

Expect another 25% decline in the next Quarterly report because last years Q2 of 6.86m was a record, so even if switch ships 5m for Q2 which is absolutely massive that will still be more than a 25% decline. Last years Q1 + Q2 of 5.67m + 6.86m was monumental and was going to be extremely hard to match and with no spring/summer blockbuster title coupled with the Oled announcement means it was impossible. However this years Q3 can make up some ground because although last years Q3 was big (11.57m) it was a relative disappointment because it was only marginally better than the previous year and some people here were thinking 13m was possible. With Oled and a much better holiday line up than Hyrule Warriors AoC and Pikmin 3DX i predict an increase over last year which would combat the minus 25% trend. For the FY i can see Nintendo reaching their 25.50m foreast, I'm thinking in the region of 26-27m which is historically a huge number and represents only a minor yearly decline of 10% to 6%. Some people here were getting carried away thinking a 30m+ DS killing year was a real possibility but i think that record may never be beaten.

I think last year's Q3 is when they started feeling the impact of shortages from covid + way more demand for Animal Crossing than they anticipated. I think they sold a LOT more Switch's in Q2 of 2020 than they thought they would, which meant they had to deplete their storage of Q3 Switch's in order to meet demand, and by then we were in full swing of chip shortages, graphics card shortages, etc. I think, if there were no shortages on parts based on factories being shut down from covid, that Q3 of 2020 would have sold absolutely a mind-blowing number. But this year demand is finally being satisfied combined with the fact that the device is 4 years and 7 months old (OLED won't really change that perception as it basically is just a nicer screen, still same power/ram/graphics) and people will start or already are starting to perceive it as an old device, unlike the PS4/XSX which are very new. Nintendo has done very well by being 2-3 years apart from the release of the competition with the Switch. If they release Switch 2 in 2023, a good 3 years before PS6/XSX2 come out, they will dominate once again. I just hope this OLED model doesn't lead to a pro model, delaying the Switch 2 launch to 2024 or 2025, because that would only give them 1-2 years of dominance on the market and being the newest full device. The longer a company has claim on the newest full device, the better off their sales are (not counting new skus as that isn't as exciting as a brand new device), and Nintendo had claim to that from 2017 until 2020 and it benefited them greatly. They need to implement the same strategy for Switch 2.