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noshten on 28 August 2021
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Famitsu Top 50 2021

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.312.364 
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) – 1.103.508
  3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 857.492 
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 685.945
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 537.912
  6. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 482.810
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) – 435.766
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 376.225
  9. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
  10. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass (Pokemon Co.) - 280.320
  11. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap (Pokemon Co.) - 272.229
  12. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 257.626
  13. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD - 253.691 
  14. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 241.027
  15. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 238.492
  16. [NSW] Miitopia - 232.060 
  17. [NSW] Monster Hunter Stories 2 (Capcom) - 220.893 
  18. [NSW] Game Builder Garage - 219.530 
  19. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 191.983
  20. [NSW] Baseball Spirits 2021 (Konami) - 177.143 
  21. [NSW] Crayon Shin-Chan (Neos) - 176.062 
  22. [NSW] Mario Golf: Super Rush - 174.974 
  23. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
  24. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
  25. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 132.933
  26. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
  27. [NSW] Yu-Gi-Oh! Rush Duel (Konami) - 113.039 
  28. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 104.782
  29. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 103.273
  30. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 102.452
  31. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 100.617
  32. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 95.149
  33. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 87.195
  34. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 85.310
  35. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 74.949
  36. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
  37. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 72.727
  38. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 68.180
  39. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 66.356
  40. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
  41. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 62.119
  42. [NSW] Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 61.350
  43. [NSW] Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 59.256
  44. [PS5] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 53.953
  45. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 45.207
  46. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 40.688
  47. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 38.944
  48. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies - 37.954
  49. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
  50. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273

TOTAL: 12.247.743
NSW TOTAL: 11.770.815 (96.1%)
PS4/PS5 TOTAL: 476.928 (3.9%)

Top 10 Publishers:

  1. Nintendo - 5.287.095 (43.2%)
  2. Capcom - 2.779.193 (22.7%)
  3. Konami - 1.393.690 (11.4%)
  4. Pokemon Co - 552.549 (4.5%)
  5. Microsoft - 495.022 (4%)
  6. Marvelous - 474.728 (3.9%)
  7. Square Enix - 386.083 (3.2%)
  8. Bandai Namco - 242.605 (2%)
  9. Koei Tecmo - 196.196 (1.6%)
  10. Neos - 176.062 (1.4%)

Since there aren't that many third party releases in the past two weeks Nintendo has continued to make gains, Game Builder Garage seems to be poised for at least 500K lifetime physical sales in its debut year(possibly helped by it's lower price point). Skyward Sword is definetly heading for 400K in 2021 - so it will likely be pretty big growth compared to the Wii version with 349K sales according to Famitsu. Miitopia & Super Rush will also end up with over 300K sales this year. For Miitopia that means far surpassing the lifetime sales of the 3DS version which ended up with 240K sales. While terms of Mario Golf games the best selling one was on the N64 at 470K lifetime sales, which is also not looking impossible. 

For the fall we have the first Wario game on the Switch, it's aim is to be able to top 800K physical sales that would surely make it the best selling title in the franchise in Japan. WarioWare Touched! on the DS is currently the highest selling game in the franchise with 1.13 million sales. I honestly expect this to end up over 2 million lifetime in Japan with digital. 

Metroid: Dread is likely going to end up the highest selling game from the series in the past 30 years which is not a high bar with Metroid Fusion on the GBA managed 155K sales, the debut from 1986 is unlikely to be topped as Metroid has never really manged over 1 million sales since than. We will need to see how WoM is and whether it finds a new audience compared to past entries. Right now it's not charting high on Amazon.co.jp and the trailers aren't really watched that much on Nintendo's channel. 

Finally we have Mario Party Superstar which is another game we can expect to pass 1 million in Japan. 

Continued strong legs of Ring Fit, MK8D and other titles launched in prior years contribute a lot as well and majority of those are Nintendo. 

Switch Evergreen Top 25 2020:

  1. Ring Fit Adventure - 1.591.366
  2. Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass (Pokemon Co.) - 1.040.754
  3. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 798.174 
  4. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 560.122 
  5. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 556.982
  6. Super Mario Party - 466.086
  7. Splatoon 2 - 435.629
  8. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 309.045
  9. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 246.688 
  10. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 236.269
  11. Super Mario Maker 2 - 234.377
  12. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 218.973
  13. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 207.472
  14. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 167.411 
  15. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 133.978
  16. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 129.241
  17. Super Mario Odyssey - 128.499
  18. Pokemon: Let's Go (Pokemon Co.) - 82.046
  19. Kirby Star Allies - 80.048 
  20. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 75.696
  21. Super Bomberman R (Konami) - 65.234
  22. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Capcom) - 61.184
  23. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco) - 60.492
  24. Puyo Puyo Tetris (Sega) - 51.472
  25. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 47.641

TOTAL: 7.984.879

Top 6 Evergreen Publishers on Switch 2020:

  1. Nintendo - 5.352.917 (67%)
  2. Pokemon Co. - 1.122.800 (14%)
  3. Microsoft - 556.982 (7%)
  4. Bandai Namco - 401.942 (5%)
  5. Sega - 218.883 (2.7%)
  6. Square Enix - 129.241 (1.6%)

Switch Evergreen Top 25 2021:

  1. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) – 1.103.508
  2. Ring Fit Adventure – 685.945
  3. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 537.912
  4. Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 482.810
  5. Minecraft (Microsoft) – 435.766
  6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 376.225
  7. Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass (Pokemon Co.) - 280.320
  8. Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 257.626
  9. Super Mario Party - 241.027
  10. Splatoon 2 - 238.492
  11. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 132.933
  12. Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 104.782
  13. Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 103.273
  14. Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 102.452
  15. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 100.617
  16. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 95.149
  17. Super Mario Maker 2 - 87.195
  18. Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 85.310
  19. Super Mario Odyssey - 74.949
  20. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 68.180
  21. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 66.356
  22. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
  23. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 62.119
  24. Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 59.256
  25. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 45.207

TOTAL: 5.893.029

Top 6 Evergreen Publishers on Switch 2021:

  1. Nintendo - 3.428.305 (58%)
  2. Konami - 1.103.508 (18.7%)
  3. Microsoft - 495.022 (8.4%)
  4. Pokemon Co. - 280.320 (4.8%)
  5. Bandai Namco - 134.536 (2.3%)
  6. Imagineer - 102.452 (1.7%)

As we can see for Nintendo it does seem like Evergreens should surpass 5 million this year as well; Pokemon Co will see a decline but in it's place we have Momotaro which is heading for at least 1.5 million this year and likely 600K+ next year; a bunch of other companies have legitimate evergreens this year - Fitness Boxing 2 is likely going to end up around 200K this year & Human Fall Flat, DQXIS, Taiko & Fishing Spirits are heading for over 150K. Finally we have Sakuna, Age of Calamity, Minecraft Dungeons, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Game, Puyo Puyo Tetris 2, Family Trainer over 100K

Predictions for 2021:

1.5M+: Momotaro

1M+: Ring Fit, MK8D

750K+: New Horizon, Minecraft

600K+: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

500K+: Pokemon Sword / Shield, 

300K+: Super Mario Party, Splatoon 2

200K+: Breath of the Wild, Super Mario 3D All-Stars , Fitness Boxing 2, Clubhouse Games, Pikmin 3 Deluxe, New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe

150K+: Mario Maker 2, Human Fall Flat, DQXIS, Taiko, Fishing Spirits, Super Mario Odyssey, 

100K+: Sakuna, Age of Calamity, Minecraft Dungeons, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Game, Puyo Puyo Tetris 2, Family Trainer, Kirby Star Allies, Luigi's Mansion 3, Brain Training

TOTAL >9700K

  1. Nintendo >5500K
  2. Konami >1500K
  3. Microsoft >850K

That would be a 20% increase YoY heading into the Software Peak of 2022, where Evergreens are likely to stay flat at worse as the Pokemon Remakes, Rise, Mario Party Superstars, Wariowear, Bowser's Fury etc will be the major new contributors. That's even before we see how other titles are received this year, there could be a surprises this fall in terms of games currently not under a lot of spot light being leggier than expected. 

Major growth will come from third parties this year as we can see that at least 15 third party titles are likely to surpass 100K with Momotaro making up a huge portion of the sales. The game is an absolute hit and it's likely going to end up with 5 million physical sales if they don't launch a new entry in the next 3 years. With the on-going updates it doesn't seem to me that Konami will be cutting it's legs any time soon and are likely investing into future titles that could make this type of impact. Microsoft has also risen to the Top thanks to Minecraft - the game is the other third party title that could leg it's way to 5 million physical. 

Beyond these two we have growth in the AA market, for smaller publishers especially - Imagineer and Teyon. With continued strong support rest of the year momentum will be kept with the OLED & Pokemon Remakes launches. But as I noted there is a lot of other releases with Nintendo, Atlus, Konami, Koei all having a very strong few months coming up in terms of new releases. 

This year with OLED launching I'm expecting that in the final Quarter we will see a lot more sales than we saw in 2020 where hardware wasn't as plentiful as expected for Japan. There were 2 million hardware sold in the holiday Quarter last year; while a similar amount was provided in 2019 when the Lite launched - however I anticipate OLED will be far more popular in Japan compared to the Lite - meaning that at least 1.5 million OLEDs will be sold in 2021 compared to just 1 million Lite units in 2019. The overall figure I expect for hardware to be at least 2.25 million in Q3. 

Overall 2021 will be very close to 2020, it will just depend on the demand that will be generated with the launch of a lot of new games both by Nintendo & Third parties combined with the launch of a new model. I'm sure Nintendo has manufactured at least 8-12 million OLED units for the holidays and at least 4 million should be allocated to Japan + East Asia. It all depends on how quickly they want to replace OG Switch but much like the 3DS XL replaced 3DS in Japan a similar thing will happen with the Switch in Japan particularly.  

In past years, I was always unhappy with the amount of third party support but this fall I expect that there is going to be a massive number of releases which will help momentum heading into 2022 where Legends, Splatoon 3 & Breath of the Wild Sequel will be the major titles to drive the software peak. OLED in combination with this type of release schedule is what will ensure no major decline on the hardware front, I still think Switch at minimum will sell 5 million units next year - overall at the end of 2022 Switch will already be near 29 million and DS record will be in it's sights in Japan. This in combination with massive sales for third parties will ensure a lot more investments into more Switch or Switch 2 games by Japanese third parties. 

Hardware sales is always linked to the amount of software released on a platform and with over 90% of software sales being made on the Switch and the market growing for 4-5 years in a row this puts the Switch successor in a very good spot in terms of upfront support it will receive when it's launched, but for right now we need to monitor if Switch reaches saturation point in Japan, this won't occur this year due to OLED and is unlikely to happen in 2022 - however I can see fall 2023 being a good time for a successor to be announced for early 2024. By that time Switch could very well be beyond 35 million units in Japan - something even the DS didn't manage, by this time in it's life DS has been long past it's peak but it was also in a far more competitive environment - it never managed 90% of software sales or over 50% of third party sales.

In many ways the Switch will be unprecedented in it's domination over Japan and it will have long term implications for the future of numerous third parties. I don't think anyone has a choice but provide some pretty strong support for whatever Nintendo chooses to launch next - the lack of competition from the PS4/PS5 ensures that there is no real threat at this time - something Nintendo has always had to to deal with since 1994.