| Bofferbrauer2 said: If your theory is true, then once the chip crunch is resolved the PS5 sales in Japan should nosedive a lot. We'll see how this hold up, but I fear you could be right. |
It could be that it's healthier, a second launch so to speak, while there is such WW demand and such high resell value for PS5 we won't find out the true demand in Japan. A Large part of the Japanese audience is simply being priced-out of buying a PS5 at the moment, if Sony can supply 50K for a few weeks in a row it would probably lead to a bit better software sales; however it would take several months of such supply before we can draw any long term conclusions.
So once the chip crunch is resolved maybe PS5 software will start to perform better in Japan, to what degree things can improve? I think it would still be in the 2-3 million software per year range. With lifetime software sales in Japan similar to PS Vita. Until the chip shortage lasts, I think we will continue to see PS5 games under-perform, I don't think Tales of Arise, Lost Judgement or Demon Slayer on the PS5 will be able to surpass 100K this year; while the swift decline in PS4 production will also lead to these titles under-performing on the PS4.
Depending on how long the chip-shortage last it could be that by the time Sony is able to supply 50K units of their console in Japan most third party developers have already shifted most of their resources to the Switch in either multiplat or full exclusivity, making the PS5 basically a console with similar amount of new Software as the Wii U but instead of Splatoon & Mario Kart 8 you have Monster Hunter World 2, Final Fantasy XVI etc. and most multiplats selling many times more on the Switch due to the difference in user-base - regardless of performance.
As there is only a dozen or so games Japanese Third Party that cannot run on the Switch, a potential Switch Pro might make PS5 entirely irrelevant. Meaning that that 10 million or so PS3/PSV/PS4 were doing mostly via third party during the prior gen might entirely transition to the Switch, leading to several years of 10M+ sales for third parties on the system, after all 3DS got far more support launch aligned compared to the Switch and only now is third party support actually arriving, in the past few years it has been mostly Nintendo & Pokemon that's been supporting the Switch - this is the first year Third Party sales on the system will surpass 10 million, but next year will likely also lead to record sales for third parties.
Famitsu Top 100 Nintendo Ecosystem 2014-2020
3DS Software 2015 - 15.386.246
WIIU Software 2015 - 3.088.447
TOTAL: 18.474.693
3DS Software 2016 - 13.054.519
WIIU Software 2016 - 1.811.445
TOTAL: 14.865.964
3DS Software 2017 - 11.421.028
WIIU Software 2017 - 429.155
NSW Software 2017 - 6.758.666
TOTAL: 18.608.849
3DS Software 2018 - 1.783.274
NSW Software 2018 - 12.720.950
TOTAL: 14.504.224
3DS Software 2019 - 213.847
NSW Software 2019 - 14.847.793
TOTAL: 15.061.640
3DS Software 2020 - 52.499
NSW Software 2020 - 20.686.204
TOTAL: 20.738.703
