| Slownenberg said: Yeah. and really your worst case scenario there is probably a low ball worst case scenario. The top of your best case scenario I think is right on for the best case scenario. Generally agreed. There's no way it sells under 140m, and its unlikely it'll be under 150m. Good chance it hits 160m. Worst case scenario is probably: ~104/105m by end of this year seems pretty common sense as the lowest it'll hit this year ~125m end of 2022 even if sales drop off strongly despite all the huge games coming out next year Low 140 millions end of 2023 as a new Switch is announced for 2024 (spring or holiday season) and Switch gets last big year of games End of 2024 Switch at maybe just under 150m if Switch 2 launches Spring 2024 Lifetime it'll trickle past 150m perhaps to DS ~154m Best likely case (without Nintendo really trying to push sales): ~106m this year as holiday season this year compared to last year has much larger games and new model so should be bigger, but current quarter should be much lower than last year. ~128m end of 2022 Switch stays pretty strong with all the huge games coming out next year, and perhaps a price drop on original and OLED models as Nintendo moves to discontinue original model and replace it as $300 with OLED ~145 end of 2023 as last round of big games start hitting Switch, and maybe Nintendo even does a price cut and does the Nintendo Selects price cuts on a bunch of first party games. ~156m end of 2024 Switch starts dying in anticipation of Switch 2 coming out holiday 2024 Then it'll maybe hit 160m end of 2025 and trickle up close to 165m lifetime. |
Now that I look at it, maybe I did miss somethings in the worst case, but I also didn't include other cases. The case in which Nintendo does not do any price cuts which will let the switch sales drop faster than anticipated.
The range between worst and best case will highly depend on HOW the OLED does, IF a Pro is going to release, IF or WHEN price cuts are done, and WHEN the sequel is going to release.
Also, there is the steam deck. I personally don't think it will affect the switch which is why it's not included, but what if it does?
2022 is gonna be an interesting year.
