Bofferbrauer2 said:
I believe it will become the best-selling console ever, so 150M-170M yo33331 said:
I expect 15M for next year. This is drop of around 10M.(I expect switch to make 25M this year) And yes this is bigger drop than the Wii but it will be so because 1. The ratio is different. 6M for 17M number to 11M is like 10M for 25M to 15M, or something close. 2. Yes it is bigger also because with the time consoles began dropping quickly and quickly after their peak. My bet for Switch is it will drop to 15M next year. You may give me reasons and examples of different consoles, but my predictions still stands. |
For the Switch to drop off so much, many, many things need to go wrong. - In case of the Wii, casuals were switching to both Kinect and smartphones, the supply of games slowly dried up (though not as drastic as Rol often makes it out to be. I mean, at E3 2010 Nintendo announced Metroid Other M, Skyward Sword, a Kirby game (can't remember it's name), Goldeneye 007 Wii, so there were still a lot of games made for the Wii when it already started to drop. Just look at the Penny Arcade skit from that year: https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2010/06/16/lets-get-ready-to-rummmmbllllle ) as they had now to support the Wii, DS, 3DS and the Wii U during a period of time. There will only be one successor and as such, the teams will not need to support 4 platforms at once.
- PS4 dropped quickly because people were yearning for a pricecut. This was very visible whenever the price dropped of the PS4 for whatever promotion, as the sales jumped massively during those times in the later years. Had Sony dropped the price of the PS4 even just to $250 all the way back in 2018 or early 2019 and we'll have a PS4 who would have sold 130M+.
- If there were some reasons to drop so strongly, we would see them well right now with the wait for the upcoming OLED model. But guess what: The weekly sales in Japan still have to drop below 60k despite it now has been 5 weeks since the OLED model has been announced and that without any big releases, which shows that demand is still very high, too high for it to almost get halved next year.
Long story short, there's no reason for the Switch to drop anywhere near that drastically. 20M I can get behind, but anything below 18M has no grounds in logic. |
1. The wrong games and dried-up pipeline. Other M and SS were the most controversial versions of their respective franchises. With a majority of the players was an expandable audience and former games, Wii needed more expandable games and arcade games, where are the games after Donkey Kong? The RPG not be localized or be late localized. I don't agree with smartphone stolen Wii public, it is true Switch is not the success are today. It's not the same type of game, remotely. Wii games rely on arcade games, with motion controls focus on local multiplayer. Cellphone games it's social games, don't have the dexterity need for an arcade game, without local multiplayer, focus on online games and games as service. The pipeline with Wii, Ds, 3DS, and Wiiu stole Wii potential and the flagship of their own Nintendo games, Other M and SS, are destined only for more core fans of the franchise and decrease sales of their respective franchises.
2. Sony makes the rational choice again. Sony doesn't need to sell 130-135 M for the fanbase. Sony needs to make a profit. The price reduction policy drie up Sony's profits perspective. Sony makes the fundamental decision, abandoned the portable space and laser focus on Ps4 because Xbox one and Wiiu don't representate great treats.
Agreed, Nintendo continues a good support, for former players, with good arcade games, The Switch will peak 2020-2021, and software peaks in 2022.
