The Switch shipped 139.36M by 31.12.2023. LT sales expectations?

[Bofferbrauer2]

I believe it will become the best-selling console ever, so 150M-170M

yo33331 said:

Mandalore76 said:

How much is your "drop hard" prediction for next year though?  The Wii's worst yearly declines were 6 million in 2011 (17m --> 11 m), and 2012 (11m --> 5m), and that was precipitated by only a 4m drop in 2010 (21m --> 17m).  You are expecting more drastic drops from the Switch than what the Wii experienced?

Personally, I'd like to see the Switch cross 150m sold, but I pragmatically voted the 135 - 150m option in the poll with expectations of around 140m.

I expect 15M for next year.

This is drop of around 10M.(I expect switch to make 25M this year)

And yes this is bigger drop than the Wii but it will be so because

1. The ratio is different. 6M for 17M number to 11M is like 10M for 25M to 15M, or something close.

2. Yes it is bigger also because with the time consoles began dropping quickly and quickly after their peak. My bet for Switch is it will drop to 15M next year.

You may give me reasons and examples of different consoles, but my predictions still stands.

For the Switch to drop off so much, many, many things need to go wrong.

1. In case of the Wii, casuals were switching to both Kinect and smartphones, the supply of games slowly dried up (though not as drastic as Rol often makes it out to be. I mean, at E3 2010 Nintendo announced Metroid Other M, Skyward Sword, a Kirby game (can't remember it's name), Goldeneye 007 Wii, so there were still a lot of games made for the Wii when it already started to drop. Just look at the Penny Arcade skit from that year: https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2010/06/16/lets-get-ready-to-rummmmbllllle ) as they had now to support the Wii, DS, 3DS and the Wii U during a period of time. There will only be one successor and as such, the teams will not need to support 4 platforms at once.
2. PS4 dropped quickly because people were yearning for a pricecut. This was very visible whenever the price dropped of the PS4 for whatever promotion, as the sales jumped massively during those times in the later years. Had Sony dropped the price of the PS4 even just to $250 all the way back in 2018 or early 2019 and we'll have a PS4 who would have sold 130M+.
3. If there were some reasons to drop so strongly, we would see them well right now with the wait for the upcoming OLED model. But guess what: The weekly sales in Japan still have to drop below 60k despite it now has been 5 weeks since the OLED model has been announced and that without any big releases, which shows that demand is still very high, too high for it to almost get halved next year.

Long story short, there's no reason for the Switch to drop anywhere near that drastically. 20M I can get behind, but anything below 18M has no grounds in logic.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 10 August 2021