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Kakadu18 on 08 August 2021
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Slownenberg said:
yo33331 said:

Normally the PS consoles have better legs and longer lives. Nintendo's consoles power is in the sales per year, while Sony's are in the long legs and the overall lifetime sales (5 of 6 have very good to incredible sales lifetime)

It's normal for Nintendo console to have biggest peak periods than Sony's. It's always the way it's been. However this doesn't mean it will beat Sony's console or will have much better legs and much better overall lifetime sales. (Well Switch have good chance of beating the PS4, but I don't think it will go much further.)

Wii did have peak year of 24M as well, but it is well under PS4. DS had way bigger and way more bigger years than the PS2 and was 4M short of it in the end.

3DS had more years of 10M+ sales than PSP, and still finished under PSP with a whopping 6M difference.

Switch had 28.2M one year, will have this year at around 25M, and I think those will be the years of the Switch that are 20M+

And as I said Switch have very good chances of beating PS4, however I don't think it will be 20-30-40M above it. It will finish at 120-135M range.

Just because Switch will have 2 years better than the peak PS4 year does not mean it will outsell it by some 20-30% lifetime

You really need to not compare Switch to PS4 as though they are going to be close. Switch is obliterating the PS4. PS4 topped out at under 20 million, Switch will have two years in the high 20's! You gotta realize how big a difference that is...Switch's top two years are going to be just shy of PS4's top 3 years combined. That's a whole extra year of good PS4 sales slipped into Switch's sales numbers. And likely Switch will have one more year in the low 20s.

Switch will be around 105m end of this year, with loooots of time left in its life, whereas PS4 hit 105 million during its final holiday season as the current gen system. That's a world of difference.

When PS4 passed 105m everyone was getting ready for the PS5. When Switch passes 105m in the next 5 months nobody is thinking about getting ready for the Switch 2, we're thinking okay next Pokemon is about to hit, next Splatoon soon, Mario+Rabbids, waiting on BotW2, when's a Zelda collection coming, when's Metroid Prime Trilogy coming, I wonder if Prime 4 will be in the next year or will it be two years, how about Pikmin 4, when is a new 2D Mario coming, are we getting a DK game, will some other fan-wanted franchises hit at some point, is another Ring Fit coming, when will we finally get price drops on hardware and games, what other big games will we be getting eventually. So yes, absolutely Switch is going to outsell PS4 by perhaps 30% or more. These two systems are not close.

Think about it another way: Switch is going to pass PS4 sales NEXT YEAR! And Switch will be around for a while after that. If BotW2 doesn't hit until holiday 2022 that means Switch will be passing PS4 just as Switch's most anticipated game is releasing! And it will by no means be Switch's last major game. This.will.not.be.close!

With this I agree with you, but I think you're still overestimating the Switch a bit.