Slownenberg said:
At this point 130 million is guaranteed beyond any doubt - it should be in the 127m-130m range at the end of '22, with lots of time left before a successor hits. Under 140 million would be the result of some sort of monstrous failure, the likes of which I can't even fathom so I'll say it's not remotely possible. Under 150 million is in the realm of possibility but only if Nintendo cuts off the system very early and isn't planning any more big games beyond what we already know about - so very very unlikely. 160m is a very reasonable prediction. 170m is a reasonable prediction. 180m is not gonna happen unless Nintendo has another model planned and is planning like another 3D Mario and Mario Kart and other surprises and plans on keeping Switch going for longer than we expect, none of which I feel will happen. 155m-175m is like 95% likelihood. |
I agree that 130M is guaranteed.
Under 140M is highly unlikely, unless there's some terrible missmanagement later on or the Switch successor launches earlier than I expect.
150M is a reasonable prediction.
160M is in the realm of possibility but not very likely.
170M has like a 1% chance of happening. For that Nintendo would need to permanently cut the price of all Switch models and software preferably next year and do more aggressive hardware bundling in the holidays. That's unlikely to happen .
Anything beyond that is wishful thinking.
155-175M is like 50% likelyhood.
Just my opinion.
