Slownenberg said:
At this point 130 million is guaranteed beyond any doubt - it should be in the 127m-130m range at the end of '22, with lots of time left before a successor hits. Under 140 million would be the result of some sort of monstrous failure, the likes of which I can't even fathom so I'll say it's not remotely possible. Under 150 million is in the realm of possibility but only if Nintendo cuts off the system very early and isn't planning any more big games beyond what we already know about - so very very unlikely. 160m is a very reasonable prediction. 170m is a reasonable prediction. 180m is not gonna happen unless Nintendo has more models planned and is planning like another 3D Mario and Mario Kart and other surprises and plans on keeping Switch going for longer than we expect, none of which I feel will happen. 155m-175m is like 95% likelihood. |
I just can't agree with these numbers lol. We just got evidence that the Switch is already slowing down considerably compared to last year, and that will only continue moreso into the holidays and next year. There is no equivelence to the mega hitters from 2017-2020 coming out this year to really push momentum. Metroid Dread, Mario Party All Stars, SSHD, SMTV, none of those are Animal Crossing, Mariokart, or Smash.
I don't think OLED is going to move crazy amounts, just like I didn't think LITE would either, especially with Steam Deck appealing to the truly hardcore spec nerds that don't mind missing out on first party titles (beforehand, these guys would probably have considered OLED as the best way to play third party games on the go, but that won't be the case anymore).
PS4 will probably not hit 125 million (maybe not even 120 million) and everyone thought that was a massive success, yet you are practically expecting Switch to hit 150 mil + based on your post. That's like thinking a political party is going to win 67% of the vote in America lol. That is only going to set you, and anyone inspired by you, up for disappointment when realistic numbers are posted. It is not doing DS level numbers to achive 155 - 175 million units sold. The only way they could get even close to that is if they prolonged this generation in an unhealthy way. They aren't going to delay the Switch 2 generation (where they could get 15-25 million sales a year) just so they can prolong Switch 1 generation (and get 5-15 million sales a year). You don't grow as a company by milking a device when it starts to slow down, you grow by launching new devices that the market wants more. If they can sell more consoles by releasing Switch 2 than by continuing to sell increasingly outdated Switch 1's, they are absolutely going to do that. And software companies are going to push for new hardware more in the coming months and years, as they will also be developing for Series X/PS5. They had a hard time downsizing games to work on Switch from the PS4/XBO and those are weaksauce compared to PS5/SX, so the longer Switch stays out as the flagship Nintendo device the less AAA third party games Switch will get, which will drive hardware sales down further. I completely believe Switch 2 is coming 2023, a full 6 year life cycle after Switch 1. Switch 1 will sell PS4 levels, which is absolutely amazing, and Nintendo will hopefully continue to have that kind of success with Switch 2 (or whatever it will be called).
