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noshten on 08 August 2021
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At the moment this is what the Top 30 looks like on the PS4/PS5 for the year,

I've included Demon's Souls & Miles Morales at 25K to 30K which seems like realistic based on the last time Demon's Souls tracked on Famitsu:

Best Selling PS4/PS5 Games 2021:

  1. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 191.983
  2. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
  3. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 72.727
  4. [PS5] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 53.953
  5. [PS4] Scarlet Nexus(Bandai Namco) - 31.665
  6. [PS4] Biomutant (THQ Nordic) - 30.292
  7. [PS5] Demon's Souls (Sony) - 25.000+
  8. [PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales (Sony) - 25.000+
  9. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 24.968
  10. [PS4] Judgment [New Price Edition] (Sega) - 24.271
  11. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Remake Intergrade (Square Enix) - 23.491
  12. [PS4] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 18.289
  13. [PS5] Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart (Sony) - 17.850
  14. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony) - 16.454
  15. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 16.352
  16. [PS4] Sakuna: of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 16.235
  17. [PS5] Judgment (Sega) - 14.749 
  18. [PS4] Ninja Gaiden: Master Collection (Koei Tecmo) - 14.483
  19. [PS4] NieR: Automata - YoRHa Edition (Square Enix) - 13.712
  20. [PS4] Guilty Gear: Strive (Arc System) - 13.574
  21. [PS4] Winning Post 9 2021 (Koei Tecmo) - 13.221
  22. [PS5] Scarlet Nexus (Bandai Namco) - 12.785
  23. [PS4] The Legend of Nayuta: Boundless Trails (Nihon Falcom) - 11.230
  24. [PS4] The Quintessential Quintuplets Double Integral (Mages.) - 10.378
  25. [PS4] Utawarerumono: Zan 2 (Aqua Plus) - 10.241
  26. [PS4] Nioh 2: The Complete Edition (Koei Tecmo) - 9.969
  27. [PS4] Neo: The World Ends with You (Square Enix) - 9.248
  28. [PS5] Returnal (Sony) - 9.148
  29. [PS4] The Caligula Effect 2 (FuRyu) - 8.454
  30. [PS4] Outriders (Square Enix) - 7.966

PS4 - 22

PS5 - 8

TOTAL: 905.953

PS4 TOTAL: 723.977 (80%)

PS5 TOTAL: 181.976 (20%)

As we can see the physical sales are dire, even if another 200+ games sold 3K on average, that takes the total of the two systems to 1.5 million with most of the year gone.

The situation between the PS4 launch starkly different, PS4 Software managed 1.958.725 sales in 2014 it's launch year, while PSV/PS3 combined sold an additional 9.240.621 units. For 2015 PS4 reached 3.945.641, while PSV/PS3 managed 6.436.535. 

In 2020 we saw PS5 manage a measly 109.374 units, while the PS4 ended up with 7.839.893 sales. 

Best case scenario for this year is that the PS5 ends up surpassing 500K physical software sold, while the PS4 surpasses 3 million units, that would be more than 50% drop in physical sales YoY. The big games for the rest of the year are basically Tales of Arise, Lost Judgement and Demon Slayer, at best these 3 games might add 500K to the annual total of the PS4/PS5 in the current climate. There are a few Western AAA games that will see a huge drop compared to prior entries because of how bad the situation for the PS4/PS5 has gotten in Japan. 

Also I don't think next year will be much better for the PS4/PS5, as the growth of software on PS5 is unlikely to offset the decline of the PS4. 

End of day, hardware performance is likely just masking the reality of PS5 ownership in Japan, there is no way there are close to 1 million of hardware sold and the best selling physical game hasn't surpassed 100K.