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noshten on 01 August 2021
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Famitsu 2020 Q1-Q3 Top 30:

  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo) - 5.754.082
  2. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) - 1.106.546
  3. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square) - 932.821
  4. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 757.221
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) - 525.216
  6. [PS4] Ghost of Tsushima (Sony) - 399.370
  7. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo) - 391.195
  8. [NSW] Smash Ultimate (Nintendo) - 383.816
  9. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 366.328
  10. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) - 317.449
  11. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo) - 297.159 
  12. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars (Nintendo) - 273.939
  13. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo) - 267.467
  14. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX (Pokemon Co.) - 259.513 
  15. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 
  16. [NSW] Paper Mario: The Origami King (Nintendo) - 256.899
  17. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 
  18. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 228.076
  19. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 222.943 
  20. [PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 180.243
  21. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 (Nintendo) - 179.438
  22. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) - 172.831
  23. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) - 168.345
  24. [PS4] Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On (Bandai Namco) - 161.014 
  25. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772
  26. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 156.140
  27. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) - 155.834
  28. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 149.898
  29. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 
  30. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550

NSW - 20

PS4 - 10

TOTAL: 15.011.204

TOTAL NSW: 12.156.044 (81%)

TOTAL PS4: 2.855.160 (19%)

Famitsu 2021 Top 30:

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.294.606 
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) – 1.047.818
  3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 820.564
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 623.266
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 475.042
  6. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 454.032
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) – 370.160
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 336.896
  9. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
  10. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap (Pokemon Co.) - 259.052
  11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass (Pokemon Co.) - 256.907
  12. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 233.452
  13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 218.256
  14. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 210.438
  15. [NSW] Miitopia - 203.904
  16. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD  - 201.731
  17. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 191.983
  18. [NSW] Monster Hunter Stories 2 (Capcom) - 185.804
  19. [NSW] Game Builder Garage - 181.336
  20. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
  21. [NSW] Mario Golf: Super Rush - 150.184
  22. [NSW] Baseball Spirits 2021 (Konami) - 142.040
  23. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
  24. [NSW] Crayon Shin-Chan (Neos) - 130.134
  25. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
  26. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 115.841
  27. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 104.782
  28. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 103.273
  29. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 91.326
  30. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 84.512

NSW - 28

PS4 - 2

TOTAL: 10.190.803

NSW TOTAL: 9.840.555 (96.6%)

PS4 TOTAL: 350.248 (3.4%)

The decline of the PS ecosystem Year over Year is gigantic. 

Rest of the summer there is just a few games launching that could enter the Top 30 on the Switch side we have Yu-Gi-Oh! Rush Duel & Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot, while on the PS4/PS5 there is Tales of Arise & Lost Judgement. Both Kakarot & Lost Judgement are launching at the very end of this quarter so they are actually unlikely to make the Top 30. The 30th Selling game at the end of this Quarter will be above 110K, so this will be the number to beat. 

With Tales of Arise likely becoming the third PS4 game to feature in the Top 30 we are likely looking at 500K sales on the PS4 across the Top 30 games during the first three quarters of this year. Things aren't going to get much better in the fall with just Demon Slayer really standing out as a PS exclusive - so the end of year situation for the PlayStation brand in Japan will be a sign of things to come. 

Hardware wise PS5 continues to do better than the PS4 launch aligned, but as mentioned multiple times this masks the truly horrific software situation. There is basically not a single PS5 game that will surpass 100K sales this year, best case scenario is for Resident Evil: Village to sell it's initial shipment of over 70K units but retailers are not going to be ordering additional copies considering they needed to sell a large portion of the first shipment via discounts. This is very much a comparable software performance to the X360 in it's first two years Japan...

As we see in theDX post earlier, companies with Switch exclusives this year are seeing major YoY growth - while Bandai who went the opposite direction are losing market share and will continue to do so if they follow their current strategy. Despite having two high profile PS exclusives this year, when the numbers come in at the end of the year it's likely that the Switch sales will be higher due to Little Nightmares 2, Taiko, Fishing Spirits & Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot. End of the day, the PS5 situation coupled with the swift decline of the PS4 means that next year might be even worse for PS exclusives. 

I don't think there is actually any guarantee that in Japan Tales of Arise actually manages to surpass 200K physical across the PS4/PS5 a lot will depend on WoM as I doubt retailers are going to make a huge risk with the initial shipment after the troubles they are facing to sell off the shipments of Village which is the highest profile PS exclusive this year, best case scenario I see with the initial shipment is PS4 -> 120K PS5 -> 40K. Lost Judgement will likely get an even smaller initial shipment in the 100K range for the PS4, while Demon Slayer is still a bit early to say but pre-orders aren't setting the World on fire. 

The truth of the matter is that without a pretty big change in Sony's strategy in terms of starting to finance smaller titles in Japan again, the fate of the PS5 is already set. Same with exclusive titles like Final Fantasy XVI which is likely to see a pretty huge decline if it launches next year. However there is very little sign of Sony actually changing their strategy while PS5 sells at record pace outside of Japan. This will have ramifications that we are already seeing as smaller publishers are beginning to drop PS support all together.