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shams said:
Pristine20 said:
shams said:
The Wii has little chance of reaching a 60%-65% marketshare - that could only happen if Sony/MS actually pulled/stop selling their consoles - and that is very unlikely.

The Wii will also lose marketshare over Xmas (like last year), because it will be more supply constrained than either the 360 or PS3. But it will likely pick up share again early in the new year '09 (etc).

 

It seems to be possible at the rate the wii is going. It may come close to ps2 marketshare. I also think nintendo would've fixed their supply constraints by then.

If the PS2 has sold 120m units worldwide, and the XBOX/GC combined sold 65m-70m - it means the PS2 is edging on 60%-65% now. The XBOX & GC haven't been openly sold as "new" products for years - this is the only reason the PS2 is edging a 60% marketshare. When the generation was "decided", the PS2 marketshare would have been in the 50%-55% range.

If the 360 + PS3 end up selling 350k-400k (combined) worldwide - the Wii would need to average 650k-700k/week to get close to a 60% marketshare (and closer to 800k for a 65% marketshare) - assuming it has to "catch up" units as well.

700k/week is approx 3m/month, which is far beyond their manufacturing capacity at the moment.

Anything over a 55% marketshare (and sustained) would be pretty amazing.

 

Xbox 24m http://www.xbox.com/zh-SG/community/news/2006/20060510.htm

GC 21.74m http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2008/080424e.pdf#page=22

45m total

72% marketshare

 

 



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