curl-6 said:
A rich and technologically advanced nation like Japan isn't a good comparison point for poor countries currently being hit hard like India or Indonesia though. A significant percentage of people in aged in their 20s, 30s, or 40s still require hospitalization, and in countries with lower standards of healthcare the associated mortality of these would be higher due to less availability and quality of treatments. You also have more people suffering from malnutrition, pre-existing disease, and other factors that make it harder for one's body to fight off covid. And again, big populations so still millions and millions over 50. |
I found this for India:
So some 4% of deaths are among those under 30 in India vs. 0.47% in the US for the same age group, according to data from heritage.org. That age group is 53% of the population of India vs. 38.7% of the population of the US according to heritage.org. How does that compare in terms of IFR?
We have a recent seroprevalence study that 67% of India had Covid. 67% x 53% x 1.4 billion = 497,140,000 people under 30 had Covid there. Now, deaths in India are likely underreported by a factor of 5 - 10 times, but these same studies point out these are concentrated among the elderly. The IFR estimate in India for this age group would range from 0.0032% to 0.032% - the low estimate assuming all deaths were reported and the high estimate that deaths were underreported by a factor of 10.
In the US, we can assume virtually all deaths from Covid were reported in this age group. Using a conservative estimate of 25% seroprevalence under the age of 30, then 25% x 38.7% x 328 million = 31,734,000 cases in this age group in the US and ~ 2820 deaths. In the US, then, IFR would be 0.0088% with 25% seroprevalence.
Hard to say where that leaves us until we have more precise estimates of excess deaths by age group in India. It could be anything from Covid was twice as deadly under the age of 30 in the US to being three times as deadly in India.
