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haxxiy on 21 July 2021
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SvennoJ said:

What's going on. All the places that were successful in keeping the pandemic at bay are now falling one after the other. After Indonesia, now Vietnam is having a huge spike, first wave there, +128% week over week growth.

67 cases accredited to the Olympic games so far despite strict entry measures. 1,387 new cases in Tokyo on Tuesday. +52% week over week growth in Japan.

A lot of Eastern Asian countries, China included, had to deal with an outbreak of just A-lineage SARS-CoV-2 back in early 2020 before closing their borders. A-lineage viruses without the D614G mutation had an R0 of just ~ 1.8.

The B.1 lineage that emerged in Lombardy and wreaked havoc in Italy and New York was already 50% more contagious than this, and Delta is 100% more contagious than B.1. That might help explain what is happening there. The first casualty of Delta was the illusion of control...

JRPGfan said:
SvennoJ said:

Other stuff going on:

India resently had a study find that, actually amount of mortality (deaths) due to covid19, could be around 10 times higher than the reported numbers.
(they simply go undiagnosed, or not reported to officals. This is obviously worse, near poorer area's and slums ect.)

However this means that they believe the actual number of dead in india due to covid could be in the range of 3+ million
(instead of the reported 400k ish number).

Makes sense given seropositivity rates of no less than 67% - 85% following the second wave in India, up from 24% - 50% by the end of 2020. That's at least a billion people infected, many of them with sub-optimal healthcare availability.

Subsaharan Africa is probably following on India's footsteps. A lot of countries there are already past the peak, even, with catastrophic outcomes to healthcare in the meantime.