No-longer-bold prediction: Sony will release PS5 Portable in late 2023/2024

[mjk45]

RolStoppable said:

Kyuu said:

1. Sony often made higher specs per dollar than arguably anyone in the console business. Switch lite is getting comfortably outsold by the standard model and is likely to get outsold by the OLED model which is nearly double its price. And I very much doubt the Switch 2 (which should launch close to PS5P and pack slightly or moderately weaker specs) is gonna cost lower than $300. Knowing Nintendo and the Switch's momentum, they're probably going for $350, THAT is the price range that I'd compare it to. Or do you think Sony entering the market will throw Nintendo into panic mode and have them aggressively reduce their prices? Even if they do that, PS5P is self sustainable and can succeed purely on the existing Playstation fanbase. Playstation handhelds, the great PSP included, didn't have the kind of library you'd expect from a Playstation home console. It wasn't even close. PS5P can change that.

No matter, PS5 at $500 (broke even by June) is setting records and crushing the $300 Series S which is hailed by the media as the holy grail of value. PS5P at $400-$450 will at worst do just fine imo. Games and functionality will outweigh prices unless we're talking $500+.

2. The Switch at launch had a battery life of just 2.5 hours for demanding games (and up to 6.5 hours, as opposed to 8 hours on Steam Deck). You're underestimating the difference 2 or 3 year make for efficiency. PS5P's hardware may well be significantly more powerful and more efficient than Steam Deck, and it's possible that Sony would opt for multiple profiles in the vein of handheld mode and docked mode to save energy.

3. PS5 is making strides as far compression technology which has shown ridiculous potential that I expect more and more developers to tap into, if (a big if) this can somehow carry over to the handheld which will run games at much lower resolutions, then there shouldn't be much to worry about. Sizes will be a lot smaller than on Steam Deck. If Switch 2 turns out as powerful as the rumors implied, it could face some game size challenges of its own.

4. PS5P is an unexplored territory. We have little clue on how the market will react to it and which type of players it will primarily appeal to. It's like Monster Hunter World, people swore it would flop ("2 million max across all platforms bruh, fucking Crapcom"), not willing to accept that a proper home console Monster Hunter had never been well-timed or properly done before. Or when everyone was crying doom gloom at Switch's reveal.

In my opinion though, I think the reactions for a PS5P would be overwhelmingly positive.

5. Digital will be the dominant format by then so I don't see it as a deal breaker for the majority of people. But yes, it is definitely a problem that will hurt sales.

Well... how much units sold would you define as being a "failure"? I think 20 million would be a pretty good result, and 30 million an excellent result.

PS5's R&D didn't stop Sony and Playstation from breaking profit and revenue records, did it? That's a non issue, especially seeing as how comfortable Sony will be by 2024. It's definitely a "risk" worth taking.

1. Price: You are mixing up a lot of things in your price comparison. The standard Switch and upcoming OLED model have no problem selling because they are hybrid consoles, that's absolutely not the same thing as handheld-only consoles in terms of value. Things would be different if you were suggesting a PS5 hybrid in your prediction, but you aren't.

As for the games that go along with it, one caveat is that all PS5 games released before the PS5P would need to be patched in order to run on it. While we could say for the sake of argument that it wouldn't be much work if only a few settings needed to be changed in order for the games to work in an acceptable state, it's still work that is required. The point is that the PS5P wouldn't be able to play any PS5 game right out of the gate, because not all publishers would be updating their games. A PS5P isn't the same thing as a PS4 Pro which could grant benefits even to games that weren't patched, because the PS4 Pro was more powerful than the original PS4; but a PS5P will be less powerful than the original PS5, so it's not the same easy process. That's why the PS5 game library is not an automatic win for the PS5P for price/value considerations.

2. Battery life: While the original Switch did have battery life of ~3 hours for demanding games, or as little as 2.5 hours with all settings cranked up to the max, this is again not a like for like comparison. The caveat here is that the demanding games were usually played in docked mode where battery life doesn't matter to begin with. You address this by proposing a docked mode, but if the PS5P would be first and foremost used for docked play with these games, then people might as well buy a regular PS5 which can play all PS5 games, past and present.

3. Game sizes: More compression necessitates more work going into old PS5 games, but even with good compression rates and all developers going for it, you aren't going to get around additional storage being mandatory.

4. This assumes that Sony would get things right in order to align with the examples of Monster Hunter World and Switch. But a PS5P would have a lot of things that are out of Sony's control, most importantly the compatibility with the existing PS5 library outside of their own games.

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Under 10m would certainly be a failure. 20m works as a bar that should be aimed for to greenlight such a project in the first place.

The PS5 was a much safer project than a PS5P will be. The PS5 was also a necessity to keep the PS+ subscriptions going, but a PS5P won't be. But this isn't a question of whether the PS division will remain profitable or not, rather it's about where money is best spent. That's what the closing paragraph of my previous post was about. What are the goals of a PS5P and can these goals possibly be achieved with a more cost-effective and less risky strategy.

The Valve announcement has people looking at a portable that revolves around the steam store so doesn't have many of the issues that would face a console based portable and the first thing that crops up is wanting a PSP5 followed straight up with arguments over a jumble of tech specs/ pricing etc, instead of more importantly following Rol's lead and firstly looking at goals and ROI concerns and viability issues . Human nature or something else?