HARDWARE Q1-Q3 TOTAL 2020: 4.427.926
NSW Q1-Q3 TOTAL 2020: 3.954.085 (89.3%)
PS4 Q1-Q3 TOTAL 2020: 473.841 (10.7%)
HARDWARE TOTAL 2021: 3.705.738
NSW TOTAL 2021: 3.085.951 (83.3%)
PS5 TOTAL 2021: 619.787 (16.7%)
In terms of hardware Switch doesn't need that much to still be ahead of 2020, with 73K per week average being enough to stay ahead with the OLED launch to follow shortly. More likely I can see the Switch actually ending up at around 4.17 million by the end of Q3 with an average per week of around 90K, I don't personally think OLED will impact demand all that much until very late in September.
Last year PS4 basically didn't get any stock during Q3, so its likely that we see PS5 at over 800K by the end of the Quarter, which would be pretty decent result in terms of hardware if we had the software sales to match it. But as discussed the software sales don't actually match the current user base of the PS5 and are actually lower than X360 achieved during the same time, there is also basically no games on the PS5 that are likely to surpass 100K this quarter either. While the PS4 audience is declining very quickly.
Still in terms of hardware we would see Switch & PS5 surpass 5 million units by Q3 with OLED, Pokemon Remakes and December there to ensure 2021 is the peak year.
Famitsu 2020 Q1-Q3 Top 30:
NSW - 20
PS4 - 10
TOTAL NSW: 12.156.044 (81%)
TOTAL PS4: 2.855.160 (19%)
Famitsu 2021 Top 30:
NSW - 28
PS4 - 2
NSW TOTAL: 9.059.486 (96.3%)
PS4 TOTAL: 350.248 (3.7%)
The big games Baseball Spirits, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Yu-Gi-Oh this quarter can potentially add over 1.2 million software; while we also have a few mid-range titles Skyward Sword, Shin-kun, Ace Attorney Chronicles, DBZ: Kakarot, Lost Judgement & Tales of Arise.
Still software will continue to be down YoY in the Top 30 mainly due to New Horizon being such a juggernaut, if we remove it from last year's total 2021 software is already ahead, but those 5.7 million sales will be near impossible to overcome this Quarter. However in Q3 we do have a one multi-million selling title, and one million selling title - which should ensure that Software does end up YoY.
From a PlayStation perspective, we might see 3 games that end up in the Top 30 at the end of the Quarter - Village, Nier Replicant & Tales of Arise; Lost Judgement launches at the very last week of the Quarter and it's launch is likely not going to allow it's PS4 SKU to chart. Also no guarantees that Tales of Arise actually makes it since it could be that the PS4 SKU only manages 100K in September and 50K on the PS5, which I don't think will be enough.
In terms of the Top 5, Monster Hunter Rise's legs aren't as strong as I thought, I think we need to see an update for Obon to reignite demand in the title in order to surpass 2.5 million physical by the end the Quarter. While Momotaro will likely end up pretty close to 1.5 million, Bowser's Fury probably close to 1 million, Ring Fit around 800K, MK8D or Yu-Gi-Oh are for me the most likely games to come into the 5th Spot, Yu-Gi-Oh's demo reception should give us a better idea of what to expect but it could definitely be a potential million seller on the Switch if WoM is good. So around 6.4 million across those game.
Within the Top 10 it doesn't seem that there would be a game below 400K, so an additional 2 million across those at minimum. Most likely games to be competing are New Horizon, Smash, Minecraft, Monster Hunter Stories 2 & Baseball Spirits
While on average the remaining 20 games will end up around 200K, so an additional 4 million.
So at minimum by the end of Q3 we would surpass 12 million sales, 3 million shy of last year - I'm expecting the biggest boosts at Obon for Momotaro, Ring Fit,
Wait, so no PS5 game has been able to sell 69K... in a 877K install base... I guess the next-gen exclusive "system sellers" are not the ones doing the selling then. I guess there is more to sales than exclusive games after all.