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noshten on 26 June 2021
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2020 H1 TOTAL: 3.102.694
2020 H1 NSW HW: 2.666.882 (86%)
2020 H1 PS4 HW: 435.812 (14%)

2021 TOTAL HW: 3.586.136
2021 TOTAL NSW HW: 2.928.506 (82%)
2021 TOTAL PS4/PS5 HW: 657.630 (18%)

Top 30 2020 H1 Famitsu:

    TOTAL: 11.783.143

    NSW TOTAL: 9.312.518 (79%)

    PS4 TOTAL: 2.470.625 (21%)

    Top 30 2021 Famitsu:

    1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.265.122
    2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) – 1.000.877
    3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 784.047
    4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 553.908
    5. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 423.593
    6. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 423.023
    7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) – 304.117
    8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 299.324
    9. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
    10. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap (Pokemon Co.) - 243.607 
    11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass (Pokemon Co.) - 235.103
    12. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 210.057
    13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 196.435
    14. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 186.915 
    15. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 184.233
    16. [NSW] Miitopia - 159.586
    17. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
    18. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
    19. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
    20. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 103.273
    21. [NSW] Game Builder Garage - 102.728
    22. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 100.954
    23. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 98.735
    24. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 80.508
    25. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 78.510
    26. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 73.581 
    27. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
    28. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 68.533
    29. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 67.692
    30. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 65.796

    TOTAL: 9.086.517

    TOTAL NSW: 8.741.337 (96.2%)

    TOTAL PS4: 345.180 (3.8%)

    This year had no chance of match software in H1 of 2020 due to New Horizon alone selling 5 million, but the thing to keep in mind is last year the biggest game of the fall ended up Momotaro(1.2M), followed by Super Mario 3D All-Stars(492K), Pikmin 3 Deluxe(462K), Ghost of Tsushima(427K), Age of Calamity(304K) - this year we have Pokemon Remakes, Super Mario Party, Yu-Gi-Oh, SMT V, MH Stories 2, Skyward Sword, Baseball Spirits, so H2 is shaping up stronger than last year for the Switch, but the PS4/PS5 won't have anything that will come close to Ghost of Tsushima let alone Final Fantasy VII Remake last year.

    So the main decline on the Software side will come from the PS ecosystem, while Switch software will end up going up YoY due to the evergreens and a lot of titles that should surpass 200K. 

    PS lineup 2020

    900K+: Final Fantasy VII Remake(Square Enix)

    400K+: Ghost of Tsushima(Sony)

    200K+: Resident Evil 3(Capcom), Like a Dragon(Sega), Last of Us Part II(Sony)

    100K+: eBaseball(Konami), Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme(Bandai Namco), Nioh 2(Koei Tecmo), Persona 5 Strikers(Atlus), Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot(Bandai Namco), Black-Ops - Cold War(Sony), Trails of Mana(Square Enix), One Piece Warriors 5(Bandai Namco), Granblue Fantasy: Versus(Cygames), Cyberpunk 2077(Spike Chunsoft), Hajimari no Kiseki(Falcom)

    So far this year the only games I would say have potential to surpass 300K on the PS4/PS5 combined are Resident Evil: Village(at 240K right now) & Demon Slayer. 

    Nier Replicant, Tales of Arise, Horizon Forbidden West,Ghost of Ikishima and Lost Judgement are the games that could finish around 200K but even this is being generous. 

    In terms of 100K+ games there is not that many candidates either. 

    Fairly huge decline considering how much hardware is being sold in Japan, as discussed previously the actual active userbase buying games on the PS5 at the moment is likely much smaller than the sold-through figures. From the perspective of third parties this should be evident, making Bandai, Sega, Square, Falcom particularly at risk as they are the closest aligned to PlayStation in Japan and Asia. Capcom, Konami, Koei, Marvelous and Atlus seem to have a strong line-up this year to capitalize on either Switch exclusive or multiplat strategy. This will be further helped by the similar position we are noticing in East Asia. 

    Still despite the decline in the PS ecosystem and New Horizon launching last year, I think Japan market will be up YoY in terms of software. This will be mainly due to the much higher number of Japanese third parties on the Switch. Especially as I don't think we've actually seen what is launching from a third party perspective for the fall outside of SMT V(October to December). 

    Last edited by noshten - on 26 June 2021