Illusion said:
I am not sure if we truly understand why the Switch is selling so well. It obviously wasn't the big titles that were released in 2017, 2018 or 2019 and I am not convinced that giving Animal Crossing the lion-share of the credit is correct either. My view is that it was the lock-down and the general fear that was put into society over the past year that primarily caused the spike. When people are afraid, their psyche and desires naturally regress into a more child-like and innocent state. It's also that case that people yearn for simpler times that exist in their memories. Nintendo's brand makes it a major beneficiary of both of these behaviors, especially among millennials and younger Gen X'ers. In my case, I have recently experienced a strong desire to rekindle my childhood of the 90's when, in my opinion, life was 100x better than it is now. That is what prompted me to dust off my N64 and start working on an adapter that lets me insert a raspberry Pi into the cart slot. I suspect that a lot of people started having the same experience (albeit perhaps on a more subconscious level than with me) and that is what provoked the massive spike in Switch sales. The real question for Nintendo Switch sales is whether the lockdown is coming to an end and life will return to the way it was in 2019. If that occurs, then Switch sales will likely go back to what we were seeing in 2019. If things get locked down again in the fall, then all bets are off on this. |
If we compare 7th generation against 8th generation minus Switch we would see a severe decrease of console sales. PSP destroyed Vita, DS destroyed 3DS, Xbox 360 destroyed One and Wii destroyed Wii U. PS4 was the only with an improvent over its predecessor
It's strange for a market growing so much on software spending (per capita) to experience such a massive decline in hardware sales in just 7 years. There was some sort of unsatisfied demand on console market and Switch is just fulling this demand
Moreso, we have a fairly high and consistent userbase for Nintendo handhelds, almost as consistent and solid as the number of loyal customers for Playstation. Until 2017 3DS was still getting support, meaning handheld customers have no reason to rush their Switch purchases. Once 3DS software pipeline started to dry it's pretty natural to just move on, and in this context Switch is absorbing all the market of half-late 3DS owners. The release for Switch Lite in 2019 was strategic in this sense, it was released close Nintendo's biggest IPs on handhelds Pokemon and Animal Crossing.
On UK 60% of Switch owners also have a PS4, and 51% have a Xbox One (December 2020 numbers). I'm inclined to believe those purchases weren't from early adopters, but rather people convinced Switch was a worth purchase after years of strong first party support, promise for continued support and a very healthy third party library that is only growing. I'm sure the turning point for the market perception about Switch qualities wasn't even 2020, it was 2019, 2 years on the market is enough for gamers make a consistent evaluation of a console, most or consoles indeed only start peaking after 2 years
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