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curl-6 on 24 June 2021
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Illusion said:
curl-6 said:

I agree on 2018 and 2020, I just can't see any of the games left for 2021 really shifting hardware to those who don't already own a Switch, they're more for the already converted. Mario Party and Pokemon D/P are old game content remastered, from franchises already established on Switch, Metroid and Shin Megami Tensei V are more hardcore niche affairs.

Not that I think sales will fall of a cliff or be in any way bad, it'll probably still pass 25 million, but I think hopes that this year could reach the big 30 are gone.

I am not sure if we truly understand why the Switch is selling so well.  It obviously wasn't the big titles that were released in 2017, 2018 or 2019 and I am not convinced that giving Animal Crossing the lion-share of the credit is correct either.  My view is that it was the lock-down and the general fear that was put into society over the past year that primarily caused the spike.  When people are afraid, their psyche and desires naturally regress into a more child-like and innocent state.  It's also that case that people yearn for simpler times that exist in their memories.  Nintendo's brand makes it a major beneficiary of both of these behaviors, especially among millennials and younger Gen X'ers. 

In my case, I have recently experienced a strong desire to rekindle my childhood of the 90's when, in my opinion, life was 100x better than it is now.  That is what prompted me to dust off my N64 and start working on an adapter that lets me insert a raspberry Pi into the cart slot.  I suspect that a lot of people started having the same experience (albeit perhaps on a more subconscious level than with me) and that is what provoked the massive spike in Switch sales.

The real question for Nintendo Switch sales is whether the lockdown is coming to an end and life will return to the way it was in 2019.  If that occurs, then Switch sales will likely go back to what we were seeing in 2019.  If things get locked down again in the fall, then all bets are off on this.

My opinion is that while they did help, the lockdowns are not the primary reason for Switch's high sales. Animal Crossing was a contributing factor too, though again certainly not the only one. I feel like it was a combination of many things; households buying multiple Switches where they might just buy one dedicated console, its evergreen catalogue growing continuously stronger, people who could only find a Lite during the 2020 shortages upgrading to the hybrid as it becomes available, the same FOMO that's driving PS5/XS sales, very positive word of mouth, etc.