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shams said:
azrm2k said:
shams said:
The Wii will also lose marketshare over Xmas (like last year), because it will be more supply constrained than either the 360 or PS3.

I'm not so sure about that.  Nintendo saw what happened last year and they are smart enough to realize as popular as the Wii is it won't be this popular forever.  I'm guessing they are going to want to demolish some records this holiday and make sure not a single parent decides to pick another video game system because they couldn't find a Wii for little Jimmy.  Just by stockpiling in Jan/Feb/Mar they were able to flood enough HW into NA to own GTA launch week.  And that was before production increases so i'm thinking there will be major intense stockpiling going on at Nintendo HQ.

Plus I wouldn't put it past retailers to stockpile in their own warehouses.  That way they can compete to have the "biggest Wii inventory" in the holidays.

Yeah, maybe. It will be the big question this holiday season. I'm also not convinced about the "stockpiling" theory (beyond stockpiling for say, a week or two). Retailers don't like to hold onto stock - they like to sell it, then restock.

The only real reason for holding hardware, would be if a big game was coming out - and by having more hardware, they could sell more software (which is much more profitable). Something like the WiiFit launch.

But yeah - as I said in another thread - on Dec 31st '08 - will you be able to walk into a random store, and buy a Wii off the shelf? I think the chances are very, very slim - it won't be as bad as last Xmas (where Wiis were "rare" to find), but I think they will pretty much sell out almost instantly when shipments arrive. Maybe Xmas '09 will have lots of Wii in stock? (its not like you can walk into random stores now, and buy Wiis??)

(I could be wrong - who knows...).

...

@XGamer0611:

MGS sales are a real 'symptom' of the current console war. The PS3/360 are very much "hard-core" machines, with hardcore audiences. When a big game arrives, ALL the hardcores want it ASAP (i.e. Halo launch, MGS4 launch). They all buy it at launch, and the game has amazing sales - then the game drops off the charts really, really quickly. Its the titles that really show legs are significant (ones that come to mind are Guitar Hero & CoD4 - both have done great).

This is also why the Wii is "working" - it is selling to people that never have owned a console (or maybe had a PS2). They head into a store, armed with little knowledge of games - and buy based on brands, word of mouth (Ninty titles), or "fun" games they played at a friends place (i.e. party games).

Non-gamers just don't walk into a store, and on impulse pick up a 360/PS3 - and THEN get MGS4 (which probably intimidates your average consumer with its "hardcore" look). Hence sales drop off pretty quickly.

By 'not convinced about the "stockpiling" theory' do you mean on the part of retailers?  Because I think that looking at last christmas, the worldwide Wii sales/month in 2008, and what we know of their manufacturing capabilities should be enough to prove that Nintendo is definitely holding back units for Christmas.

I mainly ask because I don't want to have to deal with months of people arguing that Nintendo isn't saving up units for XMas again this year; it was so annoying last year to have people arguing that they were selling all they were manufacturing when they obviously weren't



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--Predictions--
1) WiiFit will outsell the pokemans.
  Current Status: 2009.01.10 70k till PKMN Yellow (Passed: Emerald, Crystal, FR/LG)