How well do you think Metroid Dread will sell?

[Kakadu18]

IcaroRibeiro said:

Mnementh said:

Sorry, that just doesn't work. I could say Skyrim sales were disappointing, because it didn't hit 100M, so couldn't even match Minecraft, despite being much more hyped and had much more shiny 3D graphics.

You construct similarly silly expectation, to then claim that they weren't reached and therefore the sales were disappointing. No, no, a remake of an older game isn't expected to sell as good as a new entrywith groundbreaking new mechanics, we even expect remakes to usually sell less than the game they are remaking.

Similarly why do you try to pin the expectation on BOTW2, that it will sell as well as or better than BOTW? Never before had the second mainline zelda on a console sold more than the first. Majora's Mask sold half of what Ocarina of Time sold. The adventure of Link sold about two thirds of what the original Zelda sold. Twilight Princess did indeed sold more than Wind Waker, but not on the Gamecube, on which it did less than half. Skyward Sword did a bit more than half the sales Twilight Princess had on Wii. So no, BOTW2 sales will not anywhere close to the sales of BOTW.

So would you say, that Ratchet&Clank Rifts Apart doesn't sell 30 million, it will be disappointing? Everything can be disappointing, if I set completely outlandish expectations. For the Link's Awakening remake the serious expectation would've been less than the original, so about 3 million. For BOTW2 the realistic expectation based on history is about half to two thirds of BOTW (on Switch), so 10-15 million. Applying completely outlandish expectation and being 'disappointed' is a tactic to diminish a success.

To circle it back to the threads topic: based on the history of Metroid, an expectation of 1.4M-1.8M would be completely in line with historic data and therefore a pretty safe prediction. Less than that would indeed be disappointing. Including optimistic factors of 'Switch boost' may bring you to a more adventurous expectation of between 2M-3M. Failing that would be still OK, but disappointing the expectation that Metroid might be able to grow on Switch. Expecting more than 3M is a bold or 'crazy' prediction. If Metroid Dread actually sells more than 3M, that would be absolutely amazing and groundbreaking for the series. Failing that number wouldn't be disappointing at all.

I will ignore your essay about BOTW 2 sales because I said 8 million and you quoted me with 15 million, the double of the number I stated as a disappointment. I'm fully aware of how Zelda sales behaves, you don't need to teach me 

Ok, so after BOTW expecting a 2D Zelda to sell 2-3 million more than it used to is a "silly" expectation? How so? The IP is many times more popular now, I was expecting the sales for spin offs to increasing accordingly. Ok, I will grant you it was indeed a silly expectation because my lack of understand that people who liked BOTW has no interest in 2D Zelda;

People here are having a lot of silly expectation for Metroid Dread to sell 4, 5 million copies as well based on absolutely nothing, but nobody here was called out for that, funny right? People here are ignoring the fundamental truth: Some games just have more appeal than others. How many 2D metroidvanias sold 3 million in a single SKU? How many times a 2D Metroid surpassed 3 million?

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Now backing to the topic that spike this whole discussion: Some people (like myself), believe:

a) Smaller price leads to higher sales (Fundamental market truth for almost all kind of products)

b) Dread has a standard price tag, data show us most of Nintendo B-list games stop selling after some time because the high price trag 

c) Dread (any non-evergreen Nintendo game for that matter) would sell better if the price was lower

d) Nintendo won't price cut Metroid because they keep their prices the standard

---->>> And thus, our forecast is 2 million give or take


Let's ignore all tangencial topics used to divert my attention. Do you disagree with one of those claims? Do you disagree with my sales prediction?

If you don't, I see no point in prolonging this discussion 

Bold: you would say the same thing about Zelda and Smash selling 20 or 30+ million, Animal Crossing selling 30 or 40+ million and Luigi's Mansion and Mario Party selling 10+ million. 3mil isn't a huge jump over the previously best selling 2D Metroid. Other franchises had way bigger growth relative to the rest of the franchise.

Bold 2: that isn't totally wrong, but said Nintendo B-list games just aren't updated by Nintendo in their quarterly reports. Obviously they sell less, but that doesn't mean Metroid Dread is not going to move another 0.5-1mil copies after Nintendo stops updating themselves. Several games crossed the 3mil mark 2+ years after their launch. Metroid Dread surely can do so 4+ years after it's launch.

Last edited by Kakadu18 - on 21 June 2021