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noshten on 18 June 2021
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TOP 50 2021 Famitsu:

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.257.335 
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 990.484
  3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 776.315 
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 540.903
  5. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 417.499
  6. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 414.066
  7. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 292.668
  8. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 291.801 (+1)
  9. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140 (-1)
  10. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap (Pokemon Co.) - 239.890 
  11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass (Pokemon Co.) - 231.024
  12. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 205.354
  13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 192.224
  14. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 183.253 
  15. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 179.517
  16. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
  17. [NSW] Miitopia - 147.402 (+1)
  18. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091 (-1)
  19. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 125.632 
  20. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 100.954
  21. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 96.049 (+1)
  22. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 94.458 (-1)
  23. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 82.118
  24. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 76.107
  25. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
  26. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 71.424
  27. [NSW] Game Builder Garage - 71.241 / NEW
  28. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
  29. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 65.575
  30. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 64.584
  31. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 56.993
  32. [PS5] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 53.953 (+1)
  33. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364 (-1)
  34. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 41.211
  35. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 41.141
  36. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 39.287
  37. [NSW] Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 38.147
  38. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
  39. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
  40. [PS4] Biomutant (THQ Nordic) - 30.292 (+2)
  41. [NSW] Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624 (-1)
  42. [NSW] Apex Legends (Electronic Arts) - 29.057 (-1)
  43. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 27.539
  44. [NSW] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
  45. [NSW] Jack Jeanne (Broccoli) - 25.518 / RE
  46. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 24.968
  47. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 23.457
  48. [PS4] Judgment [New Price Edition] (Sega) - 22.526 
  49. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Remake Intergrade (Square Enix) - 20.889 / NEW
  50. [NSW] The Quintessential Quintuplets (Mages.) - 20.374

NSW - 43

PS4 - 5

PS5 - 2

TOTAL: 9.501.202

NSW: 9.007.056 (94.8%)

PS4: 419.304 (4.4%)

PS5: 74.842 (0.8%)

Switch has surpassed 9 million for the year across the Top 50 games, until September there are no games on the PS4/PS5 that will debut above 50K in Japan. While it seems that Switch will probably surpass 13 million software by that point. In the past 8 weeks there has been over 1.8 million software sold on the Switch the major software that launched was New Pokemon Snap, Miitopia, Rune Factory 5, Game Builder Garage.

Until the 8th of August we have Monster Hunter Stories 2, Yu-Gi-Oh! Rush Duel, Samurai Warriors 5, Skyward Sword HD, Baseball Spirits, Mario Golf: Super Rush, Ace Attorney Chronicles & Shin-Kun so by that point Switch would surpass 12 million software for the year just across the Top 50, while PS4/PS5 will likely go down to 350-400K as it doesn't seem that Scarlet Nexus is going to actually end up with a high debut. 

Top 10 Publishers

  1. Nintendo - 3.795.089 (39.9%)
  2. Capcom - 2.494.541 (26.2%)
  3. Konami - 1.018.023 (10.7%)
  4. Marvelous - 472.392 (4.9%)
  5. Pokemon Co - 470.914 (4.9%)
  6. Square Enix - 416.293 (4.4%)
  7. Microsoft - 329.948 (3.4%)
  8. Bandai Namco - 215.389 (2.3%)
  9. Imagineer - 76.107 (0.8%)
  10. Teyon Japan - 65.575 (0.7%)

Past 8 weeks:

  • Nintendo - 848.195
  • Capcom - 610.428
  • Konami - 110.861
  • Marvelous - 118.270
  • Pokemon Co - 275.539

By early August we should be looking at Nintendo should continue in a steady pace and surpass 4.5 million; nothing that could be compared to New Horizon last year but third parties have picked up the slack. It's still a very strong year for Nintendo just won't be as strong for 1st Party games as last year especially without a big fall game, Mario Party Superstars is likely to be able to hit 1 million but nothing that's remotely as big as Pokemon Remakes.  Remains to be seen how Mario Golf, Skyward Sword, Metroid Dread, Warioware, Game Builder Garage, Miitopia, Bowser's Fury do long term. 

Last year outside of New Horizon the only new games were Clubhouse Games, Super Mario 3D All-Stars, Pikmin 3 Deluxe & The Origami King so without a major end of year game we are likely going to see Nintendo achieve a similar result compared to last year. It's 2022 when we will see the peak of Nintendo in Japan.

I do think Splatoon 3 will be the first 3 million physical launch of the Switch era, considering the user base will be close to 25 million by the launch it's very possible we would be looking at 5 million in Japan shipped at launch. Splatoon 2 was launched to drive hardware sales early into the Switch's life while the userbase was still at 1.19 million with digital the launch of Splatoon 2 was actually pretty close to the amount of Switches sold at the time. Also we've had 5 years since the launch so plenty of time to really ensure that they further perfect the gameplay. 

Secondly we have the follow-up to the Breath of the Wild, this will be the first Zelda game that could potentially have over 2 million sales at launch. Similarly to Splatoon 2, Breath of the Wild launched at a time when the audience was tiny compared to where it will be next year. 

On top of them we have likely other titles that could cause waves like Tomagochi follow up, & a follow up to Ring Fit(if they have stopped updating it), Ring Fit continues to be the best selling evergreen this year - so with further updates it could very well match last year's total. 

Now where we are seeing real growth is among third parties year over year; Capcom should definitely surpass 3 million with Rise, Stories 2 & AA Chronicles by the end of the summer. While Konami is likely to surpass 2 million due to Momotaro, Yu-gi-oh, Baseball Spirits. 

As far as other publishers, I guess Neos will be the one to look out for Shin-Kun has a lot of interest around the game and if WoM is good it's likely to surpass 200K this Quarter.

Atlus also got a big highlight at the Direct which means that Nintendo is pushing Shin Megami Tensei V very hard World Wide & Japan, it could very well be the first game in the franchise that surpasses 500K in Japan, WoM will be key.

I think we will see more games reveled for the fall by third parties that will accelerate their growth in a serious way YoY, nothing on the scale of Momotaro unless DQ III Remake launches this fall. Still the fact that third party sales are likely to see x4 or x5 increase Year over Year on the Switch is emblematic of what we can expect in the fall and next year as we head into the Switch's peak.