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AngryLittleAlchemist on 18 June 2021
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KLXVER said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I hate to say it but if this game doesn't sell well, and Metroid Prime 4 also doesn't sell well, I don't see any reason for Nintendo not to drop the franchise. I can't blame them anymore if that happened. The last few games all had pretty convenient excuses to sell poorly - and the fact that the series saw it's boom during the GBA/Gamecube era where Nintendo was putting the most effort into it, rather than the Wii/DS era where Nintendo was at their most popular (prior to the Switch), seemed to indicate some level of innovation and care that made Metroid more popular back then.

But there's literally no excuse now. Up till now I haven't even agreed with the "Metroid fans are lucky to have Nintendo because Nintendo treats Metroid a lot better than any other publisher would" argument (just such a ridiculous hypothetical that even if entertained I could poke a ton of holes in it). If the franchise dies on Switch though, so be it. It would be deserved with low sales of these two games.

What would you consider low sales? Not making the money back? Under 1 million?

I knew there was a part that I forgot to write  

I think really good sales for Dread would be 2+ mil. 

I think that Dread just making it's money back would probably be ok depending on how much sales that would translate to (I have no idea how much that is). 

I think in a lot of ways Dread could just make money back, and as long as Prime 4 does super super well it will still be a healthy sign for the franchise. On the other hand if Prime 4 just is moderately successful, both games need to do super well. Sort of like how Fusion sold pretty well alongside Prime 1. 

So without hard numbers on budget and sales expectations, I'd say Dread should sell 2-2.5 million to be very successful. 2.5-3.5 super successful. 1.5-2 million to be moderately successful. 550k - 850k to break even (wider range cause who knows). 

For Prime 4, I think 3-3.5 mil would be very successful. 3.5-5 mil super successful. 2.5-3 million would be moderately successful. 1-1.5 mil is just "meh".