shams said:
If the PS2 has sold 120m units worldwide, and the XBOX/GC combined sold 65m-70m - it means the PS2 is edging on 60%-65% now. The XBOX & GC haven't been openly sold as "new" products for years - this is the only reason the PS2 is edging a 60% marketshare. When the generation was "decided", the PS2 marketshare would have been in the 50%-55% range. If the 360 + PS3 end up selling 350k-400k (combined) worldwide - the Wii would need to average 650k-700k/week to get close to a 60% marketshare (and closer to 800k for a 65% marketshare) - assuming it has to "catch up" units as well. 700k/week is approx 3m/month, which is far beyond their manufacturing capacity at the moment. Anything over a 55% marketshare (and sustained) would be pretty amazing.
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I had the ps2 at 70% marketshare in my head but now that you elaborate, I see what 65% is all about. I think its the wii's lifespan that will most likely determine where it stands at the end of this gen. If it lasts as long as the ps2, it might make it but I doubt it because the system would be too outdated when HD becomes the norm. Also, if sony isn't full of it, the ps3 would be around to slow it down for a very long time as well.
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