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vonny said:

Horizon will clear 100k

Horizon Zero Dawn managed 258K physical sales but it launched when the PS4 had a 4.48 million audience. At best Forbidden West is launching on a sub 1 million PS5 audience, with potentially a good portion of sales not even owned by Japanese consumers. Call of Duty is the other candidate but I cant for-certain expect exclusive PS5 games surpassing 100K physical with the current software sales we are seeing. 

Overall we need some big titles from third parties dated at E3 just wonder how many can be as substantial as Resident Evil: Village it's a franchise that in the past managed over 2 million and currently looking to finish under 100K physical sales on the PS5.

On the PS4 Sony bundled Knack which contributed 400K sales, so I guess if they start bundling their biggest exclusives it might help them this year. That's what I think they need to do to actually get some software sales on the system, especially for their partners who are going to have a tough time. 

With the current situation I won't be surprised to see Integrade & Scarlet Nexus launch well below 50K on the PS5

vonny said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:
"Japan's video game market is a shadow of its former self"
Meanwhile AC:NH has a shot at becoming the best selling game of all-time over there.

It is true that (fully) home consoles have been doing significantly worse ever since the seventh generation so I can understand Sony's decision to not prioritize it, but the handheld market has barely slowed down, so it's not like video games are on their death bed in Japan.

The Switch wont even match the 3DS sales in Japan(most likely) and it will never reach DS or gameboy numbers, handheld market in Japan shrinking isn't a myth it's a fact.  

DS - 32.990.000
GameBoy - 32.470.000
3DS - 24.572.610
Switch - 19.947.130

It's looking like in 2022 Switch will surpass 3DS, and by 2025 will becoming the best selling system of all time in Japan,
We just saw the market grow for a third year in a row. Switch Pro is rumored to be launched later this year and since Nintendo themselves say this is the half way point of the console lifecyle it means Switch should remain strong until 2025.

Depending on whether Switch manages to sell over 6.5 million this year, with Splatoon 3 launching in 2022 its likely not to fall below 6.5 million. Meaning that the gap between Switch and DS is less than 4 million at the start of 2023. The Pro will be what will prolong the Switch lifespan in Japan similar to how GameBoy had a longer life than the 3DS/DS due to the GameBoy Color. 

I anticipate Switch successor will come around 2024 at the earliest with a short reveal cycle of less than 6 months. Meaning that even in 2023 we are likely to see strong sales, alowing the Switch to surpass the DS and become the best selling device in Japan of all time. Doing this while being more expensive than DS/GameBoy/3DS is just the proof you need to see to understand that the market is very healthy for everyone supporting the Switch at the moment.

PlayStation is becoming irrelevant in Japan this will also drive further growth as Nintendo is set to gain a lot more franchises that used to be exclusive to the competitors. With over 90% of the market, the future of 90% of third party franchises is pretty clear and Switch is part of it, making PS5 a non-started outside of a niche audience. 

There is a reason why we can look at X360 numbers and not PS Vita or PS3/PS4... software sales is what drives hardware and in Japan PS5 is failing to achieve them