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noshten on 30 May 2021
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PS4 didn't really face a dominant Nintendo console, 3DS was already past it's peak by the time the PS4 launched and Wii U never got off the ground. 

So third parties overall thought that despite Sony abandoning handhelds the market would have no other choice but follow them to the PS4, so they mostly hitched their futures to the PlayStation ecosystem. We saw Capcom, Square, Bandai & Sega/Atlus completely focus all their major efforts on the transition from the PS3/PSV to the PS4 in the hopes that this would allow Sony to see growth from the PSV/PS3 era, 

PS2/PSP: 21.98M/19.69M 

TOTAL: 41.67M

PS3/PSV: 10.5M/5.86M 

TOTAL: 16.36M

PS4/PSVR: 9.36M/ <1M

The PS4/PSVR total in Japan is likely going to end up below 12M so regardless of the strong support third parties provided to the PS4 it wasn't able to stop the decline. The main difference is that after three years of not launching that many games targeting the Switch, Third Parties now seem onboard. When the PS4 launched it was competing with the Wii U/3DS for third party support compared to the PS5 which is launching exactly as hardware sales of the Switch are peaking while we also have expanded third party support. 

PSVR is also a device that so far failed to really make it's mark on the mass market. So Japanese publishers are unlikely to allocate much resources into developing full fledged games for PSVR2 until Sony is able to make the device a much bigger than the 5-10 million PSVR is looking to end up selling World Wide. 

Total software on the Vita in Japan reached nearly 30 million units while PS3 managed over 74 million software sales. Meanwhile the PS4 is looking like it will end up with around 50 million software sales, so a fairly big decline for companies that tried to make the transition. This will lead to looking for opportunities for growth elsewhere. 

Last year was pretty much the start of this process as we saw third parties sell more software on the Switch in comparison to the PlayStation ecosystem for the first time since the Switch launched.

Third Parties 2020 Top 30:

  1. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.233.023
  2. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix)- 949.379 
  3. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 556.982
  4. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 304.963
  5. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 269.648
  6. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 269.187
  7. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 263.255
  8. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 207.472
  9. [PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 189.649
  10. [PS4] Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On (Bandai Namco) - 168.710 
  11. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 167.599 
  12. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 167.411
  13. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 164.962 
  14. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai Namco) - 163.029 
  15. [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 142.979 
  16. [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 142.670 
  17. [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 137.513 
  18. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 133.978
  19. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 127.566 
  20. [PS4] Cyberpunk 2077 (Spike Chunsoft) - 115.813 
  21. [NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 112.277 
  22. [NSW] Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 108.570
  23. [PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki (Nihon Falcom) - 104.067
  24. [NSW] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 97.056 
  25. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 95.802
  26. [PS4] Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris (Bandai) - 94.681 
  27. [NSW] Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 87.440
  28. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 84.814
  29. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition (Take-Two) - 83.879
  30. [NSW] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 79.250 

NSW - 15

PS4 - 15

TOTAL: 6.823.624

NSW TOTAL: 3.676.199 (54%)

PS4 TOTAL: 3.147.425 (46%)

Third Parties 2021 Top 30:

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.201.869 
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 958.705
  3. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
  4. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 257.323
  5. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 162.548
  6. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 154.203
  7. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
  8. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 102.853 
  9. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
  10. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 68.910
  11. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
  12. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 63.599
  13. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 62.465
  14. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364
  15. [PS5] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 48.173
  16. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 41.211
  17. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 41.141
  18. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
  19. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
  20. [NSW] Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624
  21. [NSW] Apex Legends (Electronic Arts) - 29.057
  22. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 27.539
  23. [NSW] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
  24. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 24.968
  25. [NSW] The Quintessential Quintuplets (Mages.) - 20.374
  26. [NSW] A-Train: All Aboard! Tourism (Artdink) - 20.043
  27. [PS4] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 18.289
  28. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 16.352
  29. [PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 16.235
  30. [NSW] Jack Jeanne (Broccoli) - 15.827

NSW - 23

PS4 - 6

PS5 - 1

TOTAL: 5.087.441

NSW TOTAL: 4.646.673 (91%)

PS4/PS5 TOTAL: 440.768 (9%)

This year we are already seeing a consolidation of third party sales to the Switch and this might further accelerate if PS5 software situation remains anemic. 

  • PS4/PS5: FFVII Remake Integrade, Scarlet Nexus, Tails of Arise, Lost Judgment, Samurai Warriors 5, Ace Attorney Chronicles, Dragon Quest Remake III, Legend of Mana
  • Switch: Monster Hunter Stories 2, Baseball Spirits, Yu-gi-oh, Shin-kun, SMT V, Samurai Warriors 5, Ace Attorney Chronicles, Dragon Quest Remake III, Legend of Mana

Bold: exclusives

Maybe I'm missing some games that can clear 100K but just looking at what is launching by September Switch third party software sales will surpass 8 million, while PS4/PS5 will remain below 10% market share among third party software in the Top 30. 

In the past the best selling games and what made PlayStation devices sell was third party games supplemented by Sony Japan, now outside of Sony financing games there isn't much that will end up exclusive to the PS5 especially if moving forward Scarlet Nexus, Tails or Arise and Lost Judgement fail to surpass 200K sales. We've already seen Resident Evil: Village declining in a major way right before our eyes, as it's unlikely to sell it's 250K+ initial shipment. While the PS5 version is unlikely to ever clear 100K sales. This will make retailers cautious on stocking up PS games, making shelf space even smaller and leading to much lower mind-share among consumers and especially younger audiences. 

If PS5 remains with less than 10% market share among third parties for a couple of years in a row, well basically anyone closely aligned to making PlayStation exclusives will become irrelevant to Japan. 

There was never such a danger when facing the Wii U or 3DS since the 3DS was never as relevant as the Switch outside of Japan despite selling a decent amount. Switch's becoming the best selling console of all time world wide basically means that it's likely we would also see the strongest third party support from Japanese publishers in the history of Japanese gaming on a Nintendo system surpassing what was achieved on the DS. 

Last edited by noshten - on 30 May 2021