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noshten on 29 May 2021
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2020 H1 TOTAL: 3.102.694
2020 H1 NSW HW: 2.666.882 (86%)
2020 H1 PS4 HW: 435.812 (14%)

2021 TOTAL HW: 3.164.828
2021 TOTAL NSW HW: 2.606.756 (82%)
2021 TOTAL PS4/PS5 HW: 558.072 (18%)

With 5 weeks left the TOTAL hardware this year has surpassed last year's total, next Week Switch will surpass what it managed last year and should have no issues being at 3 million by the end of H1 with the current pace. PS4/PS5 should also finish somewhere around 625K, so overall hardware wise we'd be looking at 83% for Switch and 17% across the PS4/PS5. Still considering the actual software sales on the PS5, we could be looking at a highly inflated number due to PS5 ending up on other markets such as China. Now that there is an official launch in China there we should get closer to gauging the actual demand in Japan in H2.

Top 30 2020 H1 Famitsu:

  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.004.720 NEW
  2. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 931.165 NEW
  3. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 650.859
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 577.875
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 346.034
  6. [NSW] Smash Ultimate - 284.717
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 280.662
  8. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (Pokemon Co) - 259.513 NEW
  9. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 NEW
  10. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 NEW
  11. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 219.039
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 217.875
  13. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 212.515
  14. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 204.689 NEW
  15. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620 NEW
  16. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 NEW
  17. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 152.239
  18. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 149.898 NEW
  19. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai Namco) - 149.654 NEW
  20. [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593 NEW
  21. [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315 NEW
  22. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 130.369
  23. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920 NEW
  24. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 122.091
  25. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) 119.007
  26. [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 NEW
  27. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 111.474
  28. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094 NEW
  29. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 109.584
  30. [NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 NEW

NSW - 20
PS4 - 10

TOTAL: 11.783.143

NSW TOTAL: 9.312.518 (79%)

PS4 TOTAL: 2.470.625 (21%)

TOP 30 2021 Famitsu:

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.201.869 NEW
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 958.705
  3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 749.349 NEW
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 499.772
  5. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 400.043
  6. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 387.017
  7. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140 NEW
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 272.098
  9. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 257.323
  10. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap (Pokemon Co.) - 221.745 NEW
  11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass (Pokemon Co.) - 220.051
  12. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 190.900
  13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 179.832
  14. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 163.521
  15. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 162.548 NEW
  16. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 154.203 NEW
  17. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091 NEW
  18. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 102.853 NEW
  19. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 98.797
  20. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 94.458 
  21. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 90.170
  22. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 77.506
  23. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796 NEW
  24. [NSW] Miitopia - 72.725 NEW
  25. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 68.910
  26. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
  27. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 63.599
  28. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 62.465
  29. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 60.188
  30. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 56.993

NSW - 28
PS4 - 2

TOTAL: 8.413.287

NSW TOTAL: 8.096.536 (96.24%)

PS4/PS5 TOTAL: 316.751 (3.76%)

Software during this first half of the year compared to last paints the full picture more than half of the games are either Nintendo or Pokemon Co. Top of the charts we have Capcom & Konami with their first multi-million selling games on the Switch, Marvelous so far this year has outsold Square, Bandai Namco & Sega without too much trouble.

Capcom is poised to surpass 3.5 million with Rise, Stories 2 & Ace Attorney but there could well be other games that make their way to the Switch in the fall. 

Konami is also looking like it should surpass 2 million with Momotaro, Yu-gi-oh & Baseball Spirits, 

Square has a pretty big game launching on the Switch later in the year as the Dragon Quest III Remake the original was released back in 1988 and the Gameboy color version managed over 500K. Still it will be interesting if Marvelous manages to outflank them as Rune Factory 5, Olive Town & Sakuna are poised to bring them to over 1 million software for the first time in their history in Japan. 

Without even knowing the fall game the big difference is that on the Switch third parties are starting to thrive thanks to much stronger release schedule. Last year their support was average but this year the support they are providing is what you would expect in terms of such a market leader in Japan.

As PlayStation ecosystem has declined in a major way in terms of active user-base. Currently the only games to surpass 100K on are Resident Evil: Village and Nier Replicant with Scarlet Nexus being potentially only the third game to make the Top 30 during H1... Software decline YoY on the PS devices will be around 2 million software within the Top 30 for H1, the situation isn't much different with-in the Top 100 where again Software sales are barely around 5% for H1 at the moment from known Famitsu figures. In actuality the accelerated decline was anticipated - PS4 was able to stabilize because it entered the market competing against Wii U which was such a failure that third parties never considered it seriously. The PS5 situation is something unprecedented as the past 12 months Switch has become the leading platform for third parties. Sony decided to kill their portable business and some might say that their entry into the VR space might become a bigger opportunity for them long term, but at the current moment this has severally impacted their smaller partners, as VR didn't end up as successful as the Vita both in-terms of hardware and software sales. 

There is not a single game announced this year that would even approach 500K on the PS4/PS5 coupled with the Switch potentially moving over 10 million third party software in Japan and the message to third parties is pretty clear, especially while they have the real life example of a high big caliber game like Resident Evil: Village failing to surpass 100K on the PS5. Essentially the PS5 is dead in the water without some huge announcements to turn the tides in Japan.