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PotentHerbs on 15 May 2021
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Mnementh said:

Capcom said that for worldwide sales. We know from earlier instances, that digital is lower in Japan. Given the other numbers we know, it seems digital split on Village in Japan is low. A lot of that banks on the 10% japan figure from the 3 million shipments.

Let's look at the factoids we know:

  • Village sold about 150K physical (111K PS4, 39K PS5) first week until May 9th according to Famitsu
  • we know this is a 40%-60% sell-through of initial shipment, as Famitsu does report that (https://www.resetera.com/threads/media-create-sales-week-18-2021-may-03-may-09.425030/ )
  • the game sells beside Playstation platforms also on Xbox-platforms, Steam and Stadia
  • worldwide Capcom shipped 3 million copies in 4 days (including May 10th), including all console platforms and PC shops
  • David Gibson claims among all these 3 million shipped about 10% was going to Japan

The last point is the weakest, as the 10% figure is obviously rounded a lot.

With this we can estimate upper and lower bounds for a physical/digital split for this game in japan on PS platforms. We can assume a best case scenario and a worst case scenario for high digital share and calculate the bounds for the real value based on that.

So let's consider how the variables influence this:

  • the higher the share of the japanese market of the worldwide one, the better must be digital
  • the better the sell-through in these Famitsu figures, the less physical copies are left on shelves, the more digital must be sold
  • the more copies sold on other platforms, the less is left for PS digital share
  • the more stores restocked in second week adding to the 3m shipped, the less is left for digital

Now let's use that for math.

best case scenario

  • japanese market has 15% of world (not 10% as claimed by Gibson)
  • sell-through is on the high end Famitsu reported, so 60%
  • sales on other platforms are non-existant (probably true for Xbox and Stadia in japan, Steam is another story)
  • nothing was restocked, so the 3m shipped has no higher physical sales than Famitsu first week

15% of 3M are 450K of the shipped copies reached japan. All of that is sold on PS. With 60% sell-through, the 150K Famitsu reported equal 250K physical copies. That leaves 200K digital. 200K of 450K are 45%.

Best case scenario: 45% digital sales on PS platforms in Japan for this game.

worst case scenario

  • japanese market has 10% as Gibson claimed
  • sell-through is on the low end, 40%
  • sales on Steam equal somewhat of 100K
  • nothing was restocked, as with this low sell-through there is no need to

10% of 3M equals 300K. 40% sell-through for 150K copies means 375K. OK, that is more than the apparent share Gibson reported. That is obviously impossible, so lower bound of digital share is already 0%. But let's go with 15% for the japanese market to get some meaningful result. That means of 450K copies overall 375K are physical on PS. That does not leave 100K for Steam, let's say 50K. That means 25K digital on PS platforms, or 6%.

So, given the data we know the digital share of PS platforms for RE Village is in the area of 0% to 45%. That's a big room, but we know that for such high profile release digital is still below 50% in japan.

So if Capcom has stated 50% digital for the game worldwide, you should consider that japan is different and sales still happen on digital only platforms like Steam, which leaves console platforms with likely a higher share of physical.

The PS5 version of RE8 can very well have the bulk of the digital sales compared to the PS4/Steam versions. 

- The PS5 is selling 11% more software units compared to the PS4 in a comparable launch period (with $70 games) 
- The PS5 has the bulk of sales for cross platform games (IE. Hitman 3)
- The Playstation platform has the bulk of sales for multiplatform games in general
- The PS5 has about 80% more play time than the PS4 in a comparable launch period (inflated, but still)
- The shipped figure could be rounded to 10% (so it could be closer to 11%/12% of shipments in Japan) 
- The digital share for the Playstation platform has grown year over year (65% in FY20, 80% in Q4 of FY20) 
- Steam having an abnormally larger digital cut than the PS4/5 is absurd even in Japan
- Steam had 100K+ concurrent players for RE8 at launch

Even if digital sales in Japan are lower than the rest of the world, if the PS5 has the bulk of digital sales on the PS platform, it could very well end up having a 60 - 70k opening in Japan, which it could then leg to 100K+ lifetime. 

Last edited by PotentHerbs - on 15 May 2021