Kyuu said:
You're asserting your guesswork as some sort of truth without providing the proof, whereas I'm not ashamed to admit that my predictions/deductions are pretty much educated guesses. My comment about the sales being "ridiculously onesided" concerned the retail numbers alone (fact), which I don't see digital sales having a significant enough impact on to turn it into a healthy split (guess). My other argument on AAA exclusive deals (especially from Japan) with Playstation was a deduction based on a number of hints, trends, and facts (3 AAA exclusives from Square alone already) among other information. It wouldn't be my fault if you're mixing my guesses with my facts; I may well be wrong in my expectations like everyone else could be. Whether or not Xbox share (hardware and/or software) is reduced, or even if the sales are declined, does not tell us enough about Xbox's level of success due to the Game Pass factor which remains a mystery in a way. I'm not very optimistic about Game Pass myself, but it is something of an unexplored territory, so anything can happen. Digital ratios do not apply on equal measures across all games, that was actually one of the points I emphasized on. But the 79% does show a huge growth (that should extend to AAA games in some capacity; common sense) since FY2018 which is the year you're basing your argument on. You are failing to provide a more recent evidence -let alone proof- that Xbox retains the digital ratio advantage it appears to have had in 2019, which let me reiterate, we don't know how big of an advantage it exactly was or how it applied to the different games, genres, regions and so on and so forth. I don't think this chart is helping your case at all. It suggests that single player focused games tend to have weaker digital ratios (which may be the case on Xbox too as implied by Valhalla, Odyssey, Jedi Order, and Avengers); the games you handpicked are therefore very misleading. You're also downplaying Ghost of Tsushima's ratio as though it's the only game to have possibly suffered physical shortages in some regions, just to push your narrative. You can't prove that games with high digital ratios (primarily multiplayer) didn't have a high digital ratio on Playstation as well. Do these UK numbers include PC sales? I sure hope they don't because that would obliterate your assumption as far as UK in concerned. Nothing whatsoever hints at the huge Xbox advantage you insist on. And just to make myself clear again "Digital ratios vary case by case". This is what your chart shows. Until someone confirms RE8's digital ratios, all you're doing is throwing a bunch of assumptions and expect me to nod. Yakuza 7 is neither a AAA game nor a massive seller, and it was a launch timed-exclusive for Xbox, which may have helped it stand out due to the weak Xbox launch lineup. But of course in an ideal world, multiplats in most cases will sell better than their exclusive counterpart. Unfortunately, that's not going to stop Sony from making big exclusivity deals like they already did with Square Enix. Don't be shocked if Monster Hunter World 2 skips Xbox for 6-24 months. I think 3rd party exclusives that aren't built around the hardware's unique features/specs are terrible for the industry, but who gives a shit about what I think? Certainly not Sony. |
"Nothing whatsoever hints at the huge Xbox advantage you insist on."
We have an analyst literally come out and say that digital sales on Xbox are higher as a proportion of their total game sales. Not me. An analyst. Also I never said that Xbox has an advantage in overall total game sales. What I said is that it doesn't make sense to judge the health of a game's sale performance on shrinking physical alone for both Xbox and PS (but primarily Xbox). Which I think is a very reasonable statement. You wrongfully say PS digital downloads for full games are at 79% ratio, and that Xbox digital sales ratio couldn't be that much higher, I prove you wrong. What more is there to say? Why are you dismissing an analyst's word from 2019 as if was like 5+ years ago?
"which I don't see digital sales having a significant enough impact on to turn it into a healthy split"
What do you mean by a "healthy split"? That sounds like Internet console warrior mindset. You really think third-party devs view their game sales like console warriors do? They care more about breaking even, having as much profits as possible, high player retention, word-of-mouth (which you do all these by being multiplat), reviews, etc. The ratio could be 99%/1% PS/Xbox but if that 1% on Xbox returns triple their investments, they'd be happy.
"You can't prove that games with high digital ratios (primarily multiplayer) didn't have a high digital ratio on Playstation as well."
You can't prove that games with low digital ratios didn't have a low digital ratios on Xbox as well. As you say, "digital ratios vary case by case", so can physical ratios vary case by case.
"You're also downplaying Ghost of Tsushima's ratio as though it's the only game to have possibly suffered physical shortages in some regions, just to push your narrative."
Which other game listed in there launched in that critical time period when lockdown/work-from-home started (end of March to end of summer), which would have had the greatest impact on printing production? The vast majority of the other games listed launched outside that window.
And don't get me wrong, I do believe that game sales on PS are more than game sales on Xbox in the UK. If you thought that I was trying to imply that Xbox sold more games than PS by making up through digital sales, then that was not my intention. My whole point, again, was that just using physical game sales to base success on a game's performance means nothing, and will continue to mean nothing going forward. And that Xbox is doing fine when it comes to game sales market share considered.
Also, yeah Japanese game sales are also higher by default on PS. And yeah, Sony secured some Square Enix Japanese exclusives. But don't get it wrong, Sony isn't funding the project, Square Enix didn't offer those games as exclusives for free because of the high sales, Sony secured those deals by paying for them. Because even if say those big AAA Japanese games have a 85%/15% split on PS/Xbox, that would essentially be a 15% profit for a game just tossed out the window. And for games costing in the 50-100 million $ in production, those can be break it or make it figures.
Back to Japanese games on Xbox. At this moment, there are more JPN games being announced/releasing for Xbox in this first year than in the entire Xbox One generation pre-GP. Nier Replicant just came out same day when Automata was timed, we have Judgment sequel coming day one when Judgment was exclusive, Octopath Traveler coming to Xbox first, Scarlet Nexus, Demon Slayer, Dragon Quest Builders just came out... I do not see the hints, trends or facts you are seeing of Jpn games jumping only on Sony (minus the ones where Sony has to pay for deals)
Last edited by hiccupthehuman - on 13 May 2021
