As a point of comparison, I would like to put my current predictions out for the Switch. Hopefully, this will explain some of my rationale behind why beating the PS2 is quite likely:
|Culminative||FY Total||% Change|
FY 2021 (Pro)
|FY 2024 (Q3 Replacement)||160.6||9.00||-50%|
As is apparent from this graph, the Switch does not need to sell anywhere close to 30M this year to get past the finish line. In fact, simply meeting Nintendo's conservative expectations would be enough, reaching 110M by the end of this fiscal year. After this, the only obstacle that would remain would be maintaining sales for the next 2 years.
2022 should see only a minor dropoff, as the presence of large 1st party titles such as Pokemon and Splatoon should be enough to maintain interest in the platform, not to mention, demand for the Pro model will continue to be fulfilled going into next year, as the launch of the Pro, if it happens at the end of this fiscal quarter, will probably resemble the shortages that we have seen with the PS5 due to the semiconductor shortages, thereby prolonging the peak sales period for the Switch Pro.
A minor decline in sales in 2023 is also easily achievable, as Nintendo still has an entire arsenal of tricks up its sleeve such as price cuts, doorbuster holiday bundles, and even potentially game discounts, meaning that a figure of 18 million is not a hard task.
Therefore by 2024 by the time the Switch 2 comes out, even with some rather moderate figures provided for the next 2 years and 7.4 years before replacement (shorter than the Xbox 360 mind you), the prospect of the Switch passing the PS2 will have become inevitable, as even with Switch sales dropping off of a cliff following the release of its successor (50% drops per year is as conservative as it gets), the Switch still beats the PS2 by a margin of over 6 million, despite the fact that the numbers I have provided here are rather moderate all things considered.
This prediction also allows for flexibility. For one, the Switch here can underperform my predictions by over 5 million and still end up on top. In addition, with the trajectory that the switch seems to be heading this year, it seems that 26 million in 2021 may turn out to be a rather conservative projection. If the Switch this year were to say 30 million per se, that's 4 million more units that would not have to be sold later down the line to still meet the target.
I hope it is clear by now that Switch's path to the all-time record is clear as day, and in fact, quite probable if even a moderate/ conservative projection for the next 2 Fiscal years can get us to 165 Million. To conclude, I would kindly urge many who currently hold reservations against the Switch to at the very least read the argument to get an idea of where such bullish predictions can come from.Last edited by CheddarPlease - on 07 May 2021