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I think it's not going to match PS4, and fall short by a tad.

Assuming it's games are going to be kept off the PS5, I think the lack of Bethesda will help Microsoft steal some marketshare, and since the total size of the market, sans Nintendo, is more or less the same since the sixth gen I think that means there's going to be less of an audience for PS5 as there was for PS4.

Now, obviously this won't be some kind of great and epic turnaround. The PS5 is still going to reach 100M, so let's say 105-110M, 10M less than PS4, to Xbox's 60M.

If Microsoft snags away some more, it'll be a bit less even for PS5, but I'd say if games are going to end up on PS5 anyway, this gen's sales are going to be pretty much identical to last gen.