Xbox 360 Million Seller Thread (Analysis, Updates, and Prediction)

[mrstickball]

Riachu said:

mrstickball said:

Zucas said:
How do you come up with the probability to be a million seller thing? Just curious.

I determine what my prediction will be for a given game, and then base probability that it will meet, or exeede those expectatons, and reach 1m LTD sales at a point in it's life.

 There is a small problem with your prodictions.  You are saying that ToV will have a better chance of hitting the a million mark than IU.  However, there are some facts you should know:

1.The Tales series is way more popular in Japan than in the US

And how can we confirm that IU is going to, or not going to, have more popularity in a given country? For the record, Tales of Symphonia sold better in the US than Japan (by 200,000 units). Mind you, that was on the GAMECUBE.

2.The 360 has a small userbase in Japan and ToV probably wouldn't do all that well in Japan though it has a shot in the West

ToV has a good shot at 200,000+ in Japan due to the pedigree of the series. Heck, Symphonia sold over 320,000 on the failcube, which had a 2,400,000 install base before ToS came out.

3.Square Enix, who are publishing IU, have historically done a better job of marketing their RPGs than Namco have.

I won't argue this. However, we're talking about a serious Tales game versus a startup IP. To me, it's like arguing what will sell more: Seiken Densetsu 3 or Bahaumut Lagoon. One was a franchise IP, the other, wasn't. Square can market better, but Namco has a franchise IP. The primary advantage IU has is that it's going to be selling in ToV's wake, which might allow for more JRPG users into the X360 sphere, which will then pick up IU. Could be vice versa too. But either way, I'll take a Tales game over some wierd named game from TriAce. Even Mistwalker proved that a startup IP (BD) can fail, while gaining ground with the better-known game (LO).