5.5-6.5M. for HW.
Last year sell-through was ~5M, but manufacturing had shut down in in Q1 in China due to COVID and the demand surge hit right at the end of the Q - Nintendo was not able to rebound from both factors (underforecast + production shock) until mid-way through the summer quarter, which is why shipments lagged behind sell-through from Jan-Jun. This lag is also responsible for the shortage in the holiday quarter.
This year, none of that is an issue. Internally, Nintendo knows they're annualized sell-rate target is 30-35M, there are no manufacturing problems and we already see that we're not seeing major extended shortages (though they have cropped up a few weeks in the US and JP, mostly for the hybrid model). Thus I expect shipments to be in-line or ahead of sell-through. In 2020, there weren't enough consoles to satisfy JAn-Mar demand, let alone to ship a buffer for April. This year its the opposite, and that's despite higher sell-through by almost 20%.
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