| Shadow1980 said: Probably not. It's not impossible (yet), and I would be pleasantly surprised if it did, but I doubt it will happen. Personally, I'm thinking it'll end up somewhere in the 130-140M range. First off, the PS2 & DS sold about the same globally, with the DS coming up just short of the PS2 (mainly because of Europe and RoW favoring the PS2; the DS came out on top in the U.S. & Japan). If the Switch can't beat the DS globally, it can't beat the PS2. The Switch is trailing the DS in the U.S., Japan, and especially Europe. The only reason it isn't even deeper in the hole against the DS is because of the pandemic (and a temporary assist from Animal Crossing, which may or may not have also benefited from the pandemic). However, it is exceeding the PS2 in Japan, and will likely pass the PS2 before this year is out. In the U.S., the Switch recently pulled just slightly ahead of the PS2, if we exclude the PS2's launch holiday, but it's also worth pointing out that the PS2 continued to sell very well into the later years of its life (19.4M units from 2005 to 2011), which could limit or, further down the road, potentially eliminate whatever lead the Switch gains over it. However, in Europe the Switch isn't selling anywhere close to what the PS2 sold, and is even trailing the PS4 by a significant margin. On a regional basis, while the Switch is going to beat the PS2 by a very comfortable margin in Japan, and has a decent shot of beating the PS2 in the U.S., it's not going to get anywhere close to the PS2 in Europe. That European deficit will seriously hurt the Switch's chances of being the new #1 system globally, and I think it will likely completely prevent it from doing so. Regarding Nintendo trying to extend the generation to maximize Switch sales, they can try, but another hardware revision alone won't cut it. Trying to grow sales through price cuts and/or hardware revisions is an effort that yields diminishing returns over time, regardless of the platform. With systems that have had multiple hardware revisions, the revisions released later on have never had a significant long-term effect, though they do often produce good short-term gains. This will likely be the case with the "Switch Pro," especially if it's a higher-priced, higher-end model (like the PS4 Pro or One X). Nintendo is going to have to break with over two decades of past behavior and actually give serious, meaningful software support to the Switch for at least the next three years. And I'm not talking about just mid-level titles, spin-offs, and remakes/remasters. I'm talking new, original mega-blockbuster franchise titles. 2022 & 2023 are going to need to be as strong as 2017-2019 were in terms of software lineup. If we see things start to slow down next year, that could be a sign that Nintendo is drawing down support for the Switch in preparation for their next console, which isn't implausible considering their track record. |
Though Splatoon is a Blockbuster Nintendo title Nowadays which like already said on this thread is supported by Nintendo for 1-2 years. That supports the notion that there won't be a successor at least till 2024 which gives the Switch plenty of time to catch up to the Ps2. Also, we haven't seen a price cut or a significant refresh yet, and a price cut at least has a long-lasting effect on sales, which the Ps2 had.
