Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or neither?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

JWeinCom said:

Don't see it happening. PS2 had a lot of advantages. As it was declining in the major markets, a lot of new markets were opening it. It also was so dominant during its gen that developers kept supporting it for quite a while after its launch. Also, Sony wanted to keep pushing the PS2 after the PS3 was released, perhaps due to overconfidence. Nowadays, it seems like companies are much more interested in getting people to buy their newer products, which is why we didn't see a major drop in price or significant bundles for the PS4 when the PS5 launched.

Unless the Switch has very significant revisions that are all counted together for sales purposes (such as Gameboy/Gameboy Color) I don't see the Switch hitting PS2 numbers. But, the fact that it doesn't seem totally insane is pretty good for the Switch.

The Switch literally has all of the advantages you mentioned.

"As it was declining in the major markets, a lot of new markets were opening it."
The Switch is doing a lot better in RoW than any previous Nintendo console.  It is reaching new markets.

"It also was so dominant during its gen that developers kept supporting it for quite a while after its launch."
Third party support keeps increasing for the Switch.  Third party support for Switch in 2021 will be far better than every year before it, and 2022 will likely be better than that.  That is because 1) handheld developers are taking a long time and 2) home developers took a couple of years to take the Switch seriously.  On the handheld side we are just now getting successors to several 3DS titles (Monster Hunter, Bravely Default, Rune Factory, ect...), because Switch is a lot more powerful than 3DS.  These handheld developers are adjusting to the big bump in power.  Home console developers didn't want to back another Wii U, but it's very obvious at this point that Switch is going to have a huge install base.  New games usually take about 3-4 years to develop.  Up until now Switch mostly got ports, but we are actually getting to the point where Switch is getting its first wave of original 3rd party games.  Expect later waves to be even bigger than the first wave, because that is how it is on every successful console.

"Also, Sony wanted to keep pushing the PS2 after the PS3 was released"
Nintendo supported the 3DS for two years after the Switch released.  If they will do that for a system that sold about 76m, then how much longer will they support a system that will sell about twice that amount (or more)?

On top of that Switch has even more advantages over the PS2:
-Switch is currently tracking ahead of the PS2.
-Switch has still not had a price cut.  PS2 had several price cuts by this point.
-Switch is selling to both home and handheld markets.
-Nintendo are pros at selling multiple handheld systems to the same household.
-Switch has several evergreens that have already outsold the top selling PS2 game and will likely get more.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 23 April 2021