Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or neither?

[scottslater]

Illusion said:

ninjapirate42 said:

So many factors here, but it certainly has a shot. But without knowing what Nintendo's plans are for a new console and the timing of it are the big questions here.
Also, if they released a Switch Pro which was just an upgraded Switch and not a new system that would certainly help to drive up sales (and to cause many people to double dip for the better system who already owned a previous version).

I will go ahead and guess that it will beat it, since I have to guess something :)

I think that you hit the nail on the head.

If Nintendo ends up releasing a Switch Pro that has all the bells and whistles that we are hoping for such as DLSS and a significantly improved screen, then there is no question that 150M will be easily passed by the Switch and I even believe that 200M is realistic target.  That bigger question we need to ask as a community in this case, though, is whether this counts as a new console or is a refresh similar to what the New 3DS was.  Is backwards compatibility and a similar name and form factor enough to consider two pieces of hardware to be the same console generation even if the hardware capabilities are radically different?  The New3DS was not that much faster than the 3DS and a lot of people who had a 3DS did not re-purchase a New 3DS, but if the Switch Pro ends up using DLSS and is capable of 4K resolution then this puts it in new generation ballpark and a lot of people are going to want to have both models.

The question here comes down to a logistical one.  The momentum that the Switch currently has will land it somewhere close to 150M assuming that Nintendo does absolutely nothing in terms of hardware releases over the next 5 years, but this is highly unlikely in my opinion.  If Nintendo releases a vastly improved Switch pro in the next 1-2 years, then this will decimate the original Switch sales (maybe it peaks at 110-130M) but the new model is probably going to explode, especially if it is good as the rumors are suggesting right now.  In this case, it will come down to whether we consider the new Switch model a part of the original Switch generation.  In my opinion, if a ton of people are rebuying the Switch Pro for the radical enhancements it has then it doesn't seem fair to Microsoft and Sony in the console wars to continue adding up Switch sales.

It will be closer to 160m in the next four years, not 150m in 5 years. After 4 years it will be well over 80m units and gaining momentum/peaking. The next two years will easily sell over 25m+ each year, so another 50m+, that brings it to over 130m units in 6 years. It would literally have to stop all production at that point to not reach 160m+ units.

EDIT: Let's not forget that price cuts are still an option to boost sales as well. It's selling these crazy numbers while keeping it's original MSRP, PS4 cut it's price less than 2 years into it's lifecycle (released 11/2013, first price cut was 10/2015 in the US. In Japan it released 2/2014 and first price cut was 10/2015). PS2 did massive price cuts early in it's lifecycle as well, dropped $100 in less than 2 years. https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Price_cuts

Last edited by scottslater - on 23 April 2021