Oh wow Just Dance 3 is the most ever? That's kinda funny. I guess yeah the last time Nintendo had major third party support (the SNES) the market was way smaller.
Yup MH Rise is pretty much guaranteed to pass Just Dance 3. Should easily sell over 5 million in Japan alone and over 5 million elsewhere. Will probably beat Just Dance 3 by at least a couple million. Though I wonder how much Minecraft has sold on the Switch, could that be approaching 10 million?