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noshten on 13 March 2021
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The migration of the third party market

Famitsu PS4 3rd Parties 2018 Top 20:

  1. Monster Hunter: World(Capcom) – 1.962.221
  2. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 (Konami) – 252.297
  3. Judgment (Sega) – 224.048
  4. Red Dead Redemption II (Take-Two) – 205.586
  5. Fist of the North Star: Lost Paradise (Sega) – 178.640
  6. Dynasty Warriors 9 (Koei Tecmo) – 176.291
  7. God Eater 3 (Bandai Namco) – 174.834
  8. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) – 163.882
  9. Warriors Orochi 4 (Koei Tecmo) – 156.083
  10. Dissidia: Final Fantasy NT (Square Enix) – 155.413
  11. Winning Eleven 2019 (Konami) – 155.245
  12. Far Cry 5 (Ubisoft) – 147.573
  13. Battlefield V (Electronic Arts) – 144.309
  14. Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet (Bandai Namco) – 133.108
  15. Dark Souls Remastered (From Software) – 125.581
  16. The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel IV (Nihon Falcom) – 115.842
  17. Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star Link (Marvelous) – 112.874
  18. Super Robot Wars X (Bandai Namco Games) – 112.753
  19. FIFA 19 (Electronic Arts) – 105.047
  20. Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX > (Square Enix) – 94.221

TOTAL: 4.895.370

Top 5 Publishers:

  1. Capcom – 1.962.221
  2. Bandai Namco - 420.695
  3. Square Enix - 413.516
  4. Konami - 407542
  5. Sega - 402.688

Famitsu PS4 3rd Parties 2020 Top 20:

  1. Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 949.379
  2. Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 269.187
  3. Yakuza: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 263.255
  4. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 180.243
  5. Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On (Bandai Namco) - 161.014
  6. Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772
  7. Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) -149.898
  8. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai Namco) - 149.654
  9. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593
  10. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 131.315
  11. Granblue Fantasy: Versus (Cygames) - 127.566
  12. Cyberpunk 2077 (Spike Chunsoft) - 115.813
  13. The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki (Nihon Falcom) - 104.067
  14. Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris (Bandai Namco) - 94.681
  15. Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition (Take-Two) - 83.879
  16. Monster Hunter World: Iceborne Master Edition - 74.158
  17. Marvel's Avengers (Square Enix) - 72.758
  18. eFootball Winning Eleven 2021 Season Update (Konami) - 64.218
  19. Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne HD Remaster (Atlus) - 62.511
  20. Assassin's Creed: Valhalla (Ubisoft) - 61.345

TOTAL: 3.405.306

Top 5 Publishers:

  1. Square Enix - 1.155.730
  2. Bandai Namco - 536.664
  3. Capcom – 343.345
  4. Sega - 263.255
  5. Konami - 244.461

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2020 Top 10:

  1. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 773.532
  2. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 236.073
  3. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 140.712
  4. Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 112.902  
  5. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 59.268
  6. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 46.598
  7. Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 45.259
  8. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 43.429
  9. Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 41.938
  10. Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 37.403
  11. Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 33.546
  12. Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) -25.744
  13. Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) -17.151
  14. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 15.414
  15. Derby Stallion (GameAddict) - 13.170
  16. Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack (Bandai Namco) - 12.327
  17. Uta no Prince-sama (Broccoli) – 10.588 
  18. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 7.696
  19. Umineko no Naku Koro ni Saku (Entergram)  - 5.821
  20. Darius Cozmic Revelation (Taito) - 5.341

TOTAL: 1.683.912

Top 5 Publishers

  1. Konami - 773.532
  2. Marvelous – 295.341
  3. Square Enix - 156.331
  4. Microsoft - 140.712
  5. Bandai Namco - 86.830

By mid-April Third Party sales on the Switch in 2021 within the Top 20 titles will surpass the PS4's Top 20 in 2019. Due to Monster Hunter World PS4's reached its peak in terms of third party sales in 2018.

Capcom with Monster Hunter Rise, Stories 2 & Ace Attorney alone will record more sales than the Top 20 in PS4's Top year; Rise is set to become the first third party game to surpass 3 million on the Switch physically. This will be the first game poised to surpass 3 million since Monster Hunter 4 & Yo-kai Watch 2 on the 3DS.  

Momotaro & Minecraft are also heading to 3 million although with Minecraft it might take until 2022, while with Momotaro signs are that it might get there in 2021, the game has been a huge hit. With Baseball Spirits and a potential Winning Eleven on the Switch, its looking like a strong possibility that Konami surpasses 2 million sales this year. If Baseball Spirits turns out to be exclusive to the Switch.. well that's a big turn around and definitely unexpected. Konami is seemingly the most pragmatic third party which has brought them success, now it's a matter of whether they invest their winnings into more games and new IPs. 

Marvelous still can turn things around for Olive Town, the game was not well received but if they can get the patch out and improve satisfaction it will definitely have legs, especially with additional content planned. I still think that things can be turned around and for the game to have very successful Golden week and Obon periods while marketing will also ramp up during updates. So I would not put 1 million out of the question. They really messed up with the launch and botched a big chance to have very strong month. It's all about winning back trust, ahead of their next major launch. 

Sakuna is heading towards over 300K lifetime physical sales - with it's very strong eShop sales it's a given that the debut will surpass 700K across the PS4/Switch - so it's been a fantastic hit for them as well. While so far pre-orders for Rune Factory 5 are tracking closer to DQXIs Switch debut, for a game like this WoM will be crucial, so they can't afford to make the same mistakes as Olive Town. 

It will be interesting who comes out behind Capcom, Konami and Marvelous - because based on currently announced games those three will be the runaway leaders this year. Koei Tecmo, Square Enix, Bandai Namco & Sega are obviously contenders and it's not clear if all will manage to surpass Minecraft's numbers. Square & Koei are the most likely candidates right now. 

The last thing to consider is the Switch Pro? I would imagine that its potential launch in the second half of the year will galvanize the market and third party sales even more.