Your sales expectations for 2020

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Shadow1980 said:

Well, I guess there was a thread on this here at VGC. And it proves a point I made in another thread: nobody expected the Switch to sell as well as it did in 2020. Except for two outliers, one of which involved a very broad range of estimates (the center point on the range was 21.5M, with the range extending ±3.5M from that), the average prediction for the Switch for 2020 in this thread was around 20-21M, and the better of those two outliers still fell short. Related to this, the NPD-specific prediction thread on Era for 2020 as a whole had predictions for the U.S. that were all below 7M, but usually above 6M; the actual number was 30.4% better than the most generous prediction, and over 40% better than the average of all the predictions. And for the professionals, I know at least Matt Piscatella wasn't expecting the Switch to be up.

The impacts of the pandemic on consumer spending were massive. There was a huge increase in spending on at-home entertainment, obviously including video games, and, at least in the U.S., that spending was aided by stimulus checks. Lots of people tried to argue against that fact or at least downplay its effects (mainly regarding the Switch), but, well, there you have it. The Switch beat the average prediction by 33-40%. When these predictions were made, every other variable (Animal Crossing, potential new models or price cuts, residual effects from the Lite, etc.) was known and accounted for except one: COVID-19. In January 2020, nobody was expecting that a disease that was still in the background (the first confirmed cases in the U.S. & Europe weren't until late January) would have become serious enough by March to result in a lockdown, with places like movie theaters and bowling alleys and restaurants being closed for protracted periods of time. But because of the pandemic and its effects on spending, every console unexpectedly over-performed, at least as long as supply was able to sustain it (the PS4 & XBO declined rapidly once stock started to run out).

Had 2020 been a normal year, the Switch would have sold a lot less than it did. Meanwhile, the PS4 & XBO would have continued to be way down YoY during the spring just as they were in January & February, though they'd almost certainly have a better second half of the year than what they actually had. Hard to say if they would have sold better overall for the year as a whole, though.

No one is disputing that Switch sold more because of COVID.  Instead, I and some others are saying you are too pessimistic on your Switch predictions.  You were predicting that Switch would be down in the US in at the beginning of 2020.  Most people in this thread were predicting Switch sales would be up in 2020.  You stated in this post the average was 21.5m and that means people were predicting sales would be up.  Obviously, this thread is about worldwide sales and not US sales, but I can definitely tell you that I thought Switch sales would have been up in the US when this thread was made.  I would wager that most of the people who predicted Switch sales to be up worldwide would have said the same about the US.

The way you come across is that you think Switch sold an extra 10m+ worldwide in 2020 because of COVID.  And consequently as soon as COVID ends, you expect Switch sales to fall off a cliff.  I do think Switch sold more because of COVID but not 10m+ more.  You are too pessimistic in your Switch predictions.