December NPD 2020: Switch 2.1 million, PS5 800K, XBS 700K

[Norion]

RolStoppable said:

Norion said:

I do think 2024 is more likely than 2023 though a point to consider is video game hardware sales are far more important to Nintendo than the other two to the extent Switch sales accounted for around half of their revenue last quarter. If 2022 sales end up being unsatisfactory to Nintendo I could see them potentially releasing the Switch 2 in holiday 2023 so hardware sales don't decline too much. This scenario is unlikely I think but it's something to consider.

The ideal timing for the Switch successor would be a launch during the fiscal year where Switch hardware shipments drop below 10m units. There isn't a good reason to act sooner because software sales peak later than hardware sales. You mention revenue, but that's less important than profits; Nintendo has higher profit margins on software than on hardware, so an overall drop in revenue due to declining hardware sales (which will inevitably happen at some point) won't decrease their profits on a proportional level.

That's fair. Holiday 2023 will only really happen at this point if 2022 sales are unsatisfactory and Nintendo reacts to that rashly which isn't impossible since companies can react rashly to things but both those things happening is unlikely so I do expect holiday 2024 for the Switch 2.