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Norion on 05 February 2021
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RolStoppable said:

Given Switch's momentum going into this year, we are likely going to get yet another year without Switch getting its official first price cut. If we assume this price cut will happen in 2022 because that will finally be the year when it's necessary to maintain good sales, then why would the console get replaced only one year later?

I'll say it again, Nintendo is talking about this longer lifecycle to their investors, so it's not some meaningless PR fluff. When Nintendo reiterates this same thing basically every three months and then doesn't stick to this plan, investors will have a lot of questions.

How many years does it usually take for a console to get replaced after it had its first official price cut?

I do think 2024 is more likely than 2023 though a point to consider is video game hardware sales are far more important to Nintendo than the other two to the extent Switch sales accounted for around half of their revenue last quarter. If 2022 sales end up being unsatisfactory to Nintendo I could see them potentially releasing the Switch 2 in holiday 2023 so hardware sales don't decline too much. This scenario is unlikely I think but it's something to consider.