yo33331 said:
You will be quoted after 2 or 3 years .. however not for being right but being wrong. Only cuz switch is now in its prime didn't means it will reach PS2. Many have tried, many fallen, only because of 1 very good year - almost 30M, it doesn't mean switch will be the best selling console.. 1 year doesn't make everything. Switch will need at least 2 more years with sales around 30M, to be really closing on the PS2. It is too far now. And I mean this as a requerment.. if switch don't reach 30M this year, and the year after this (2022) it's preety much sure switch won't reach PS2 or even DS. Successor is coming in 2023/2024 that is 100% whatever the sales are, so anything below close to 30M in this and the next year is not enough for the switch to reach those PS2 numbers. And even with 30M this and the next year, switch will still have to sell another 20M after this for it to reach PS2 .. and we all know how the last few generations of consoles (every manufacturer not only nintendo) went when their successor is launched .. making 10M at best after the next console is launched.. So while it can reach very good respectable numbers lifetime in the form of 120-130-140M, I don't see nintendo switch coming to 150 or even 160M lifetime. |
If it sold 30 million this year and next year that would put it at around 140 million by the end of 2022. Sales would have to drop to less than 18 million for the rest of its life to not outsell the ps2.
Now I'm not sure if the switch will outsell the ps2 or not, but in the hypothetical that you provided it definitely would. There is no chance that if the switch sold 30 million in 2022 that it would be replaced in 2023, so that would guarantee at least 20 million in 2023 which alone would put the switch at around 160 million.
