Second Edition - Animal Crossing: New Horizons shipped 31.18m by December 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

anonymunchy said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

The more I think about Animal Crossing sales, the more it makes my head hurt.  I mean, I can technically follow a trend line and calculate the numbers, but really it defies every kind of expectation I had for it.  For example, I just didn't think sim games in general were this popular.  A year ago, I kind of thought "the Sims" was the ceiling for sales on this kind of game.  Just imagine if a turn based strategy game sold 40m+.  Would that seem right to you?  It definitely would buck all previous trends. 

GTA and Minecraft are both essentially open world action games, and so I've thought this was the main mega-popular genre.  I also recognize that really easy to learn games have the potential to explode in sales, like Tetris or Wii Sports.  I wouldn't put Animal Crossing into either of these categories.  It's not a 2D platformer or racing game either like original Super Mario or Mario Kart. 

The questions I have are, "what kinds of people are buying Animal Crossing and how many of these people are there?"  It seems to be females and I think it is also popular with kids.  But those categories are really broad.  I think it also mostly includes people who are willing to pay $300 + $60 just to get an Animal Crossing game.  That kind of cost is far more than a person pays to play GTA or Minecraft which is kind of amazing too.  I just feel like these numbers have to run out eventually.  Animal Crossing can't do 10m+ a year for several more years in a row.  At least, I don't think it can.

Anyway, this is all a wild ass guess, but I voted 50-55m.  In the older poll I voted 40m+, but I felt that was an easier poll.  Back then I still didn't think it would outsell Mario Kart 8 when I voted 40m+.  Now I realize that Animal Crossing has been putting Mario Kart sales to shame.  Who the hell knows what will happen?  I really feel Animal Crossing sales are like nothing I've ever seen before.

Bonus: I did purchase this game, but I bought it for my daughter.  I still haven't played it yet.  It looks fun, but also it looks like a hell of a time sink.

They could buy a switch lite for $100 cheaper, or a second hand model.

The current average population increase is estimated at 81 million people per year, so I don't think those numbers will run out any time soon.

Mario Kart's worst FY was FY18, where it sold 7.5million units and looking at the other evergreens, its a pretty safe bet that Animal Crossing will do an average of 5million per year. This would put it at roughly 50million at the end of 2024, so sounds like a very reasonable estimate.

Personally, I think next FY it'll do better than Mario Kart's best FY, which for the moment is its launch year, FY17, at 9.6million. Though FY20 is looking like it will surpass it and maybe tickle 10million. I'm going for 60-64.9million, though a longer Switch life-cycle could see it soar past 70million.

bonus: No, I have not bought it. I was doubting it for a while, but I tend to get bored rather quickly with sim games and my backlog is big enough.

Are you being facetious?  I am aware there are around 8 billion people in the world.  The market for dedicated gaming devices is a tiny fraction of that.  Those 81 million new people per year are irrelevant to the discussion.

The sales limit, based on the past, is Mario Kart Wii sales of about 37m.  That is the highest number of sales for a single platform game that wasn't packed in at launch (like Wii Sports).  Animal Crossing is going to blow past that.  It's going to set the new standard for maximum sales.  What is that new record going to be?  Who the hell knows?