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noshten on 24 January 2021
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From the COMG Thread

noshten said:

I think the initial shipment for Disgaea 6 could end up around 50K across the PS4/Switch, won't be surprised if the Switch version faces supply chain problems initially. The best selling game in the franchise sold 150K, which is definitely doable if WoM is good for Disgaea 6.

Disgaea 6 is the first game this year with an initial shipment which could be higher than 50K across the PS4 & Switch. 

Despite the previous game only selling a little over 30K physically across the PS4 and Switch, retailers and Nippon Ichi are likely to want at least a Sakuna like shipment for the game to ensure there is not shortages if WoM is good for the game. 

Disgaea SKUs Top 5

  1. [PS2] Disgaea: Hour of Darkness (2003) - 152.675
  2. [PS2] Disgaea 2: Cursed Memories (2006) - 151.806
  3. [PSP] Disgaea 2: Portable (2009) - 138.391
  4. [PS3] Disgaea 4: A Promise Unforgotten (2011) - 129.031
  5. [PS3] Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice (2008) - 110.772
  • [PS4] Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance (2015)  - 34.429
  • [NSW] Disgaea 5 Complete (2017) - 5.065

We shall see how the game does but I anticipate that if WoM is good it could definitely see a Top 5 result for the Franchise on the Switch.  

Nippon Ichi has thus far not had much success on the Switch, Disgaea 6 is actually their first major effort on the platform and would be their first game to surpass 100K since the PS3 days.

Nippon Ichi Top 10 PS4/NSW

  1. [PS4] Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance (2015)  - 34.429
  2. [PS4] The Witch and the Hundred Knights 2 (2017) - 25.687
  3. [PS4] Yomawari: Midnight Shadows (2017) - 15.035
  4. [PS4] Liar Princess and the Blind Prince (2018) - 6.379
  5. [PS4] The Witch and the Hundred Knights Revival (2015) - 6.306
  6. [NSW] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III (2020) - 6.280
  7. [NSW] Liar Princess and the Blind Prince (2018) - 5.346
  8. [PS4] Coven and Labyrinth of Refrain (2017) - 5.075
  9. [NSW] Disgaea 5 Complete (2017) - 5.065
  10. [NSW] void tRrLM(); //Void Terrarium (2020) - 4.759

TOTAL:114.361

PS4 TOTAL: 92.911

NSW TOTAL: 21.450

Overall Nippon Ichi are one of these small publishers which in the future might drop PS4/PS5 all together from their strategy. If Disgaea 6 declines further on the PS4 while Switch version manages to be a a Top 5 game in the franchise I anticipate they won't be bothering to launch on both the PS4/PS5 and Switch - prioritizing their Switch launch(maybe they will provide late ports on the PS ecosystem). 

We already know that Disgaea 5 sold the most World Wide on the Switch compared to the PS4, so their hopes for growth come mostly from overseas markets and especially South East Asia and China. By April 2018 Disgaea 5, on the Switch had sold nearly 200,000 copies outside of Japan. This is the main reason the game is exclusive to the Switch outside of Japan.

Still growth in Japan would be seen as a very positive for a company of their size - if the game manages more than 114K sales on the Switch it would have outsold the current Top 10 games on the PS4/Switch combined. Considering how well Sakuna has done, Disgaea 6 could manage 1 million world wide by the end of the quarter.