| RolStoppable said: Sure, they can keep it long enough going to have the Switch successor launch closer to the PS6 than Switch launched to the PS5. Nintendo has reiterated several times that a new console isn't coming anytime soon, because Switch still has plenty of opportunities left. What people keep forgetting when talking about Switch is that it's in both the home console and handheld market. In these first four years Switch has sold first and foremost to home console gamers, but this doesn't mean that it's close to the saturation point on that front yet. After all, the Wii sold 100m units with crippled third party support, so the ceiling for a Nintendo home console with good software support is notably higher than that value. On the other hand, Switch has only scratched the surface of the handheld market, because even Switch Lite is rather pricey. Once Switch comes close to saturation in the home console market, it still has plenty of life left in it because of more and more people adding secondary and tertiary Switch units to their households. Hardware revisions are a major boon here, especially if they are properly spaced out. We've had the original Switch for almost four years now, so that's already a long enough timeframe for many to consider an all-around improved revision for purchase. The same will hold true for another handheld-only SKU down the line. All factors considered, a Switch successor launch in 2025 or 2026 is certainly feasible. It won't matter if it turns out that 2020 was Switch's peak year, because a peak doesn't need to be followed by a downward slope. For consoles with strong software support it's very common that the peak is followed by a plateau, so there's no good reason to worry about Switch. It won't be market forces that can prevent Switch from going that long, because Switch's unique value proposition will not be seriously challenged by anyone, plus nowadays a huge amount of gamers doesn't need more processing power because non-realistic graphics look already so good. The only threat to Switch is Nintendo deciding to release a new console prematurely, but they should be more careful about rushed decisions in their current situation where the vast majority of their business rests on the shoulders of a single console, so a repeat of the DS and Wii generation where new hardware was pushed out regardless of enough software being ready for it is unlikely. |
Good post. For me it's just hard to tell when the saturation point is reached. If they bring out a Pro model and/or revisions, obviously, the saturation point can be somewhat extended. However, I think yours is an ideal situation and if it plays out like that, i.e. home console market is not yet saturated, followed by a huge potential of the handheld market, is hard to tell. It's the first ever hybrid console in the market, we have no precedence. I really would love to see it going for years to come, especially as past Nintendo home consoles saturated early.
