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noshten on 17 January 2021
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PS4/PS5 Top 15 Oct - Jan

  1. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony) - 162.275
  2. [PS4] Cyberpunk 2077 (Spike Chunsoft)-  112.408
  3. [PS4] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne HD Remaster (Atlus) - 55.501
  4. [PS4] Assassin's Creed: Valhalla (Ubisoft) - 55.445
  5. [PS4] FIFA 21 (Electronic Arts) - 51.884 
  6. [PS4] Watch Dogs: Legion (Ubisoft) - 49.685
  7. [PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 48.019
  8. [PS4] Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo)  - 43.987
  9. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S(Square Enix) - 35.855
  10. [PS4] Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales (Sony) - 34.811
  11. [PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales (Sony) - 24.805
  12. [PS4] Densha de Go!! Hashirou Yamanotesen (Square Enix)  - 21.592
  13. [PS5] Demon's Souls (Sony) - 21.489
  14. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts: Melody of Memory (Square Enix) - 18.120 
  15. [PS4] GreedFall (Game Source) - 13.292

PS4 - 13

PS5 - 2

TOTAL: 749.168

Call of Duty

  • Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 - 511.722
  • Call of Duty: Black Ops III - 403.054
  • Call of Duty: WWII - 387.498
  • Call of Duty: Modern Warfare - 243.901
  • Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare - 215.127
  • Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War - 162.275
  • Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - 102.668

Call of Duty is the western IP with the most decline in Japan in the past two years, Black Ops 4 released during the PS4's peak, while next year I don't think the franchise will be able to sell over 100K copies on the PS5. 

Cyberpunk 2077 vs Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

  • The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 195.894
  • Cyberpunk 2077 - 112.408

Spike Chunsoft is probably pretty unhappy about how the PS4 launch of Cyberpunk 2077 went, they shipped around 150K copies which are likely not going to sell-out until the game is fixed, I guess that's the risk with banking on Western Third parties for growth. The Witcher 3 also had bugs at launch, but the game was playable on the PS4 and had very good legs, with Spike making a couple of additional shipments and achieving very good sales digitally. 

Assassin Creeds

  • Assassin's Creed: Origins - 98.951
  • Assassin's Creed: Odyssey - 87.523
  • Assassin's Creed: Valhalla  - 55.445
  • Assassin's Creed: Syndicate - 55.183
  • Assassin's Creed: Unity - 51.109

FIFAs

  • FIFA 18 - 125.712
  • FIFA 19 - 105.047
  • FIFA 17 - 86.462
  • FIFA 20 - 74.142
  • FIFA 14 - 70.622
  • FIFA 21 - 51.884 

Watch Dogs

  • Watch Dogs 2 - 109.712
  • Watch Dogs - 95.490
  • Watch Dogs: Legion - 49.685

EA & Ubisoft also won't be getting that many sales in Japan in the future as Assassin's Creed, Watch Dogs, FIFA will struggle to sell beyond 50K in the coming year or even years. 

Overall Western 3rd Parties will be worst impacted in 2021 by the struggle of the PS5 to gain a foothold. Take Two, EA, Ubisoft's biggest games will struggle to surpass 100K sales in Japan because they are all pretty much exclusive to the Sony ecosystem. Sales within the PlayStation Ecosystem are very likely to be under 3 million physical next year, which will be a 58% decline in two years. The people playing AAA games in Japan will become a niche, and Japanese audience will become more familiar with smaller publishers and indies from the West than the biggest ones that outside of Ubisoft don't seem to have a strategy that included the Switch up until this year. 

I do think we would see more games from EA, Take Two and Ubisoft on the Switch in 2021, as these are businesses which are constantly chasing profits so they can no longer not have Nintendo as part of their road-map at this point. As their shareholders demand profit, we can expect more acquisitions of studios that have found success on the Switch.