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noshten on 11 January 2021
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Sakuna has reached 100K physical this week on the Switch, the game continues to do well - based on its great WoM, it has already surpassed 150K combined on the PS4/NSW, since the PS4 version likely sold at least 10K additional copies since exiting the Top 30. Overall I'm not yet sure how well it will do overall but I don't think it will have a problem surpassing 250K sales by the end of 2021. If we add the very strong digital sales of the game on eShop it's likely going to outsell Island of Happiness overall. 

[NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin - 100.663 
[PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin - 48.019*

Marvelous Top 15

  1. [DS] Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness - 304.660
  2. [3DS] Harvest Moon: A New Beginning - 264.042
  3. [3DS] Harvest Moon: Linking the New World - 259.111
  4. [3DS/NSW] Rune Factory 4 - 245.857
  5. [DS] Harvest Moon: Twin Villages - 212.870
  6. [PSV/PS4/NSW] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star - 198.804
  7. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns - 196.088
  8. [PSV] Kan Colle Kai - 190.568
  9. [PS4/PSV/NSW] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star Link - 177.279
  10. [PSV] Senran Kagura Shinovi Versus - 158.270
  11. [3DS] Harvest Moon: Shining Sun and Friends - 155.065
  12. [NSW/PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin - 148.682 NEW
  13. [PSP] Fate/Extra - 147.911
  14. [PSP] Fate/Extra CCC - 147.911
  15. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town - 146.363
  • 3DS - 5
  • NSW - 5
  • PSV - 4
  • PS4 - 3
  • DS - 2

By the end of the year I anticipate that Sakuna, Rune Factory 4, Rune Factory 5 and Olive Town will join Island of Happiness as the top Marvelous games. Historically Marvelous is far from the largest studio in Japan, its been as we can see a studio mainly focused on handheld games that haven't managed even 500K combined across several SKUs. I believe this is about to change this year as Olive Town & Rune Factory 5 will be the breakout games for the studio. Not only in Japan but in East Asia, as Tencent who bought a stake in Marvelous will be probably marketing the games in East Asian markets. 

I anticipate that 2021 will be the first time they would be able to surpass 1 million sales in Japan alone, and will be their peak year and allow them to really cement themselves as a Top 3rd Party on the Switch both in Japan and in East Asia.