Famitsu Sales: Week 1, 2021 (Dec 28 - Jan 03)

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TOP 20 2020 Switch Famitsu Q1:

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2.608.417 NEW
2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 554.390
3. Ring Fit Adventure - 249.488
4. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 218.394 NEW
5. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 185.900
6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 181.921
7. Smash Ultimate - 170.222
8. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 151.351
9. Super Mario Party - 118.077
10. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 117.482
11. Splatoon 2 - 103.649
12. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 97.772
13. Super Mario Maker 2 - 82.915
14. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558 NEW
15. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 76.921
16. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 69.378
17. Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 65.653 NEW
18. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 61.571 NEW
19. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 58.899
20. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 39.804

TOTAL: 5.290.762

TOTAL HARDWARE: 1.700.352

• Outside of New Horizon launching last year Q1 was actually very weak
• Ring Fit was supply constrained all Quarter and had its weakest Quarter so far
• Only 4 NEW games in Q1 2020
• Biggest NEW third party game didn't even cross 100K sales in Q1
• Hardware received a huge boost by New Horizon launch at the end of the quarter

TOP 20 SOFTWARE WEEK 1 2020: 721.143

TOP 20 SOFTWARE WEEK 1 2021: 891.638

• Switch Top 20 Software is already up 170K YoY when comparing Week 1s. 
• With Bowser's Fury, Olive Town, Bravely Default 2 all launching in Q1, there is far more software that will push hardware sales this quarter
• I believe TOTAL Software with the launch of Monster Hunter Rise can surpass 7 Million for the Quarter.
• Ring Fit, Momotaro & New Horizon should all surpass Sword / Shield Q1 TOTAL with enough stock 
• Hardware can surpass 2 million. If Nintendo ships 450K for Monster Hunter Rise launch and following week - we just need 123K on average for the remaining 10 weeks which is doable due to the much stronger & consistent software line-up

Prediction Q1 Top 10:

1. Monster Hunter Rise >2M
2. Bowser's Fury >700K
3. Olive Town, Ring Fit, New Horizon, Momotaro > 500K
4. Bravely Default 2 >300K
5. MK8D, Smash Ultimate, Minecraft >200K

TOTAL: >5.6M

• Bullish on Rise's chances to be the biggest launch on the Switch surpassing New Horizon's launch
• Bullish on Boswer's Fury outperforming NSMBUD straight out of the gate
• Bullish on Olive Town eventually selling 1 million in 2021
• Bullish on the prospects that Ring Fit shortages are finally over
• For Bravely, MK8D, Smash and Minecraft - I think this is more of a low-ball prediction