Famitsu Sales: Week 1, 2021 (Dec 28 - Jan 03)

[kenjab]

RolStoppable said:

It's time to move on to 2021. The new year gets kicked off with a slight plus over the previous year and the different alignment of days might further aid 2021 to get off to a good start.

It would be shocking if any Switch game released in the future turns out to be as big as Animal Crossing, so it's unlikely that 2021 will be bigger than 2020 was. I set the target for 2021 at 5.0m, so that's the figure I will keep in mind to judge whether or not Switch is on a good pace.

Week	2020 Weekly	2020 Cumulative	2021 Weekly	2021 Cumulative	Difference Weekly	Difference Cumulative
1	284.827	284.827	312.121	312.121	27.294	27.294
2	116.301	401.128
3	96.458	497.586
4	67.987	565.573
5	75.922	641.495
6	100.961	741.456
7	80.312	821.948
8	41.490	863.258
9	53.098	916.356
10	50.585	967.941
11	57.274	1.025.215
12	392.576	1.417.791
13	282.561	1.700.352
14	154.640	1.854.992
15	25.313	1.880.305
16	27.874	1.908.179
17	107.104	2.015.284
18	78.731	2.094.015
19	78.731	2.172.746
20	38.380	2.211.126
21	52.557	2.263.683
22	107.593	2.371.276
23	68.192	2.439.468
24	55.187	2.494.655
25	78.428	2.573.083
26	93.799	2.666.882
27	52.250	2.719.132
28	96.879	2.816.011
29	113.197	2.929.208
30	125.231	3.054.439
31	86.605	3.141.044
32	173.338	3.314.382
33	148.699	3.463.081
34	70.129	3.533.210
35	78.773	3.611.983
36	77.611	3.689.594
37	83.920	3.773.514
38	110.029	3.883.543
39	70.542	3.954.085
40	91.093	4.045.178
41	108.575	4.153.753
42	95.852	4.249.605
43	64.768	4.314.373
44	86.985	4.401.358
45	139.200	4.540.558
46	116.267	4.656.825
47	179.143	4.835.968
48	145.178	4.981.146
49	204.622	5.185.768
50	229.698	5.415.466
51	263.304	5.678.770
52	278.173	5.956.943

Looking at 2021, I think it will beat 2020 regularly for the first 11 weeks, but then once it starts competing with Animal Crossing things will swing the other way quick.  Monster Hunter Rise releases one week later than Animal Crossing so we can see how the two games compare in terms of moving hardware in the spring. While MHR should certainly be big in Japan, I doubt it will last quite as long as AC in terms of hardware selling effect. I don't anticipate the shortages like last year so 2021 will likely take the 2020 shortage weeks (e.g, weeks 15 & 16) though.

Overall, I see no reason the Switch can't beat your 5M target, perhaps by quite a bit.  I'll guess 5.5 million for 2021.