So the Butantan Institute has finished phase III trials for CoronaVac but won't divulge the results until data from all countries is aggregated by early January. Talk behind the curtains, however, is that efficacy isn't actually as high as hoped. That probably means Turkey has divulged fake results about it, and so did the UAE when it reported results from a similar inactivated vaccine (using data from China, not their own).
I mean, while 60% might sound good in theory, do remember that literally none of these vaccines, even the 90% press release ones, has had time to properly accrue results from older age groups besides a broad sketch that it elicits immunogenicity among elderly people in earlier phase trials. Ideally, you would have time to put aside these concerns, but it's rather possible that efficacy will be revised downwards in the upcoming months and years depending on the country's demographic profile. So you'd want some wiggle room in here, not to be tethering on the edge.
So that means that, at the moment, Brazil is stuck with:
- CoronaVac. Locally produced and cheap, but probably ~ 60% efficacy or so.
- AZ's Chadox vaccine. The only peer-reviewed vaccine so that's very good. Also cheap but on the lower end of efficacy too.
- J&J's vaccine. Single-dose vaccine but an unknown quantity.
- Sputnik-V. Also an unknown quantity, given no independent analysis. In theory, it could work like AZ's.
- The Indian inactivated vaccine whose name I forgot. In theory, it could work like CoronaVac.
- The Biotech vaccine. Sounds good but only press releases so far. Bolsonaro has an open feud with it, and most doses won't come until the second semester, if the vaccine is bought at all.
Last edited by haxxiy - on 25 December 2020
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